💡 Brits wrong about nearly everything

⚡ The Spark
Brits wrong about nearly everything

As true today as it ever was

For some reason, people don’t like being wrong.

Wait, that’s not strictly true.

People don’t like being told they’re wrong, or they don’t like other people telling them they’re wrong.

Actually being wrong? People couldn’t care less (as long as no-one else finds out).

We have proof.

Take a look at this 2013 survey, and tell us if ten years on, the outcomes would be any different.

Actually, take a look at this more recent survey and see if you can spot the disconnect…

Yep, it’s a ‘cost of living’ crisis, but most peoples’ largest monthly expense (housing) doesn’t count…

Make it make sense. 😩

Listen, it’s entirely understandable that most people don’t get this stuff, and are wrong about pretty much everything.

The media sensationalises, while the Prime Minister claims credit for things that had nothing to do with him…

What’s the inflation truth?

A complicated mix of things that happen when you combine massive money-printing, pandemic, supply shocks and a war/conflict that seriously impacts energy prices.

The UK government shoulders some of the blame for inflation, but not all of it. The same as other governments (and central banks) globally.

The consequences of inaction would arguably have been far worse. 

To claim he’s done anything about bringing inflation down is just plain dishonesty.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong.

Seriously, it’s a complex world. If you’re involved in markets, you get used to being wrong.

The goal is always to be less wrong.

🧠 The Big Brain
Time to buy oil?

Nah you crazy

The oil story has been pretty clear over the past few days. A big positioning clearout followed by an oversold bounce.

Now? Not so much.

The rally was assisted by rumours of further production cuts from OPEC+ this weekend.

Morgan Stanley also point out that oil tends to do well in this kind of late cycle environment…

However, it’s a complex situation for OPEC+ & the oil market. Can they deliver?

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💡 The Lightbulb
US existing home sales slump to more than 13-year low

The US housing market continues to slow…

Those higher mortgage rates definitely did the job.

The story remains the same. Buyers are frozen out of the resale market due to high borrowing costs, and there aren’t enough houses on the market (due to high borrowing costs when those sellers become buyers).

Once again, the market anticipates that this will persist. Which is seen as good news for US homebuilders.

With resale supply locked out of the market and borrowing costs falling, the homebuilder correction has… corrected.

We’ll see if buyers are still as keen to jump in if rates keep falling, or will they decide to wait for lower rates...