Crypto: What's going on?

Things feel weirder than they have for a while.

I don’t quite know what to think of the market right now.

I mean there’s certainly opportunity, but for how much longer will the easy wins of being long chip makers and AI go on for?

Let’s have a little recap of yesterday with Nvidia…

Why did it fall so hard?

Don’t know.

Should you care?

Maybe.

Why?

Well, if price goes lower.

But what if price goes higher again?

The forget about caring.

See how this game is played?

Price confirms the narrative.

But a market which I think is signalling toppishness is crypto.

And crypto tends to be the first domino to start falling at the end of cycle.

Here’s SOL, BTC and ETH.

SOL is well below its 20, 50 and 100 daily moving averages.

ETH is doing the best by only being below its 20 and resting on the 50 and 100 at the moment.

But BTC is the short term concern.

$57k!

That’s the point of decisiveness and I’d be almost 90% sure we’re going to trade down there over the next few weeks.

People are wondering why memecoins aren’t pumping and why devs are rugging so often at the moment — it’s because they are poor and broke, but that is only slightly connected to the fact they’ve probably lost money on their BTC spot positions, and or leveraged longs.

Do bear in mind though, trading back down here isn’t weird, or necessarily a trend change.

I don’t think you can truly suggest a 20% drawdown is indicative of a bear market anymore — other considerations need to come into play.

For instance, are we seeing that the cost to trade big amounts in futures is abnormal?

No, not really.

If anything, the cost is BETTER at current price than it was even at $35-$40k…

Which implies it’s still pretty liquid on CME futures.

Granted this is a week or two out of date, but it’s not exactly telling a bad, bad picture.

So those betting on a bigger fall in crypto MIGHT be smarter to do that at roughly the 200dma.

What could be a good bet is if Solana takes a steeper dive.

There’s an irony…

If you are pro Solana, you might be pro Pump.Fun facing some kind of lawsuit LOL.

It has caused an issue whereby the value of Solana has degraded due to the ease of launching tokens on pump.fun.

It costs what, half a SOL to launch and then a few SOL maybe for marketing?

This is sort of not right — statistically I bet you should not be able to succeed with set up costs this low, and the people being rewarded the most are the ‘devs’ (what devs, there’s no developing happening) who are able to string up a website and a narrative about a meme nice and fast.

If you’re a trader, you don’t care, just don’t buy into the meme narrative and see it for what it is — and even higher vol asset class than Bitcoin is.