Financial markets are just Instagram vs reality

🧠 The Big Brain
Wake up! (Trade Idea)

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⚡ The Spark
Financial markets are just Instagram vs reality

Fr fr.

Think about the last time we analysed some data.

All we look at is expected vs reality.

Much like seeing someone with an Instagram filter on or off.

@fink.tok

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Perception: someone in the comments of that TikTok rightly said that all it is is perception…

How much more bang on could someone be?!

It’s why economists fail so hard — they firstly, can’t grasp irrational perceptions and secondly, said irrational perceptions don’t fit in their models.

And they aren’t really penalised for having shitty forecasts because they can just blame the models…

Let me know what you reckon moves financial markets!

💡 The Lightbulb
Is this the 20th time you have seen this today?

All LOLs yesterday at the IMF as J Pow drops F bombs against dreadlocked middle class people.

I actually love him for this.

Disconnect: there couldn’t be a bigger delta right now than between the hippies and the financiers, as we reported on recently.

But from my psychoanalytical expertise of watching a TikTok once, I reckon J Pow is stressed out.

Stressed because peak rates are here whilst not wanting to necessarily pretend they are…

The killer line came later when he said ‘the bigger mistake is not getting rates high enough.’

J boy, are you trying to torture us?

Honesty: it’s quite smart what he’s done there though — by leaving the door open for hikes, any sort of softening in stance makes the next direction very clear for risk assets…

Unless pandemonium breaks out in employment data which is of course the HUGE risk going forward…