FOMC: Volatility Gatekeepers To Pass Judgement

The committee will announce their decision later today.

Traders have been praying to the Volatility Gods.

Will those prayers be answered or is it bread and water until July?

FOMC Archive Photos

OK, maybe the Fed aren't Greek Gods, but they are definitely the gatekeepers of volatility.

I like Volatility Vampires too but vampires don't have committees so the analogy got lost (kind of like this intro).  

JUST GIVE US SOME VOLATILITY!

The people demand it.

Thoughts on FOMC here 👇

TL;DR Absolutely no reason for them to change policy right now, or communicate any intention to taper soon.  

In theory, existing trends should continue (risk assets higher, dollar lower) as long as the Fed are dovish enough.

Whether the market shares that opinion will be confirmed this evening.

Yesterday saw more of a cyclical focus again...

Shift back towards cyclicals today while defensive/growthy areas took breather; Energy clear winner while REITs were last & Tech slipped; REITs still looking healthy YTD, given it’s only slightly behind Financials…risk-on tone helped value outperform growth (Small Cap Growth struggled) @LizAnnSonders

The overthinker guy that lives in my head is wondering about Morgan Stanley's mid-cycle transition, but he's usually wrong so I'll check in with him again tomorrow...

Chart porn here from Barrons

China is working hard to keep a lid on commodity prices

China stepped up its campaign to rein in raw materials prices by expanding its oversight of commodities trading by state firms to overseas markets, and pledging to release the nation’s reserves of base metals.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has ordered state enterprises to control risks and limit their exposure to overseas commodities markets, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The companies have been asked to report their futures positions for Sasac to review, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential.

The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration will soon release state stockpiles of metals including copper, aluminum and zinc, the agency said in a statement Wednesday. The metals will be sold in batches to fabricators and manufacturers.

And they're continuing the crackdown on shadow banking and riskier bonds too...

China’s crackdown on shadow banking is taking aim at more than $1 trillion of opaque investments sold by banks as low risk and high yield, even while funds were channeled to riskier borrowers such as developers.

Banks and wealth mangers can no longer use money invested in so-called cash management products to buy long-term debt or bonds rated below AA+, according to long-awaited rules published on Friday. An estimated 2.5 trillion yuan ($390.5 billion) of the products are currently invested in assets that will soon become non-compliant, and need to be swapped for lower-yielding, high quality investments by the end of next year.

This story caught my eye...

A federal judge in Louisiana issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Biden administration from pausing new oil and gas leases on federal land.

Judge Terry A. Doughty of the U.S. District Court in Monroe said the administration doesn’t have the legal right to stop leasing federal territory for oil-and-gas production without approval from Congress.

The judge, appointed by former President Donald Trump, also said that states suing the federal government—largely southern and coastal states—will be harmed immediately as the pause prevents them from collecting lease bids and bonuses from oil-and-gas prospectors.

The suit was filed by the states of Louisiana, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and West Virginia.

Something to keep an eye on.

A lot of the $100 oil calls are based on continued production discipline by OPEC+ nations and the end of investment in longer-term oil projects.

Even the return of Iranian oil is supposedly in the price...

If this decision is reversed, alongside the quiet G7 backtracking on the pledge to only sell electric cars by 2030, some might reconsider just how much of a sure thing the long oil trade is.

Unlikely to happen soon but definitely one to keep in mind. It could become a strong political point in the U.S. midterms & campaign next year...

Politicians love to campaign on solutions to recent problems...

Looking ahead, Chinese data at 08:00 could move the needle somewhat, alongside CPI, RPI & PPI data from the UK, and Canadian CPI at 13:30, before the main event this evening.