We’re changing things a bit.

We’ve been testing with lots of things over the last few months, and one thing stands out…

You want to hear about things that aren’t spoken about elsewhere that really matter.

So that is what this Friday email will be…

‘What is happening that’s bubbling under the surface that isn’t getting the eyes it deserves?’

Because we still want to be able to give you a hint to things to look at, even if you’re reading for free!

So we’re going to kick off today’s with a nice easy one…

Germany is doomed.

That was the topic of today’s TikTok, but think we can expand it a little more in terms of the timeline of how we got to here…

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Anyway, onto that TikTok I mentioned.

@fink.tok

Could this country face a collapse soon? #economy #recession

Energiewende has broken Germany: a timeline of nuclear shutdown

Germany's nuclear phase-out journey under Chancellor Angela Merkel's leadership was like a rollercoaster ride, full of twists and turns. Let's take a year-by-year look at this atomic adventure:

2005: Merkel takes the helm as Chancellor, inheriting a nuclear phase-out plan from the previous government. It's like she's been handed the keys to a car that's already in motion.

2009: Plot twist! Merkel's new coalition government decides to pump the brakes on the phase-out. They extend the lifespans of Germany's nuclear plants, like giving a bunch of old cars a new paint job and saying they're good to go for another decade.

2010: The government makes it official, passing a law to extend nuclear power plant operations. It's as if they've decided to keep these atomic workhorses in the stable for a bit longer.

2011: Enter the Fukushima disaster, stage left. This nuclear nightmare in Japan sends shockwaves around the world. Merkel, in a dramatic U-turn that would make race car drivers jealous, announces an immediate "nuclear moratorium." It's like slamming on the emergency brake.

June 2011: The Bundestag votes to shut down all nuclear reactors by the end of 2022. It's as if Germany has decided to trade in its nuclear-powered sports car for an electric vehicle, but the new car won't be ready for a decade.

2015: The nuclear phase-out hits a speed bump. Energy companies sue the government, claiming the accelerated shutdown is unfair. It's like the nuclear industry is asking for a refund on a car they've been told they can't drive anymore.

2016: The Federal Constitutional Court agrees that the nuclear plant operators deserve some compensation. It's as if the government has been told to pay for the depreciation on those nuclear "cars" they're taking off the road.

2021: Three more nuclear power plants are shut down on December 31st, leaving only three still running. Germany's nuclear fleet is shrinking faster than ice cream on a hot summer day.

2022: Plot twist part two! With Russia's invasion of Ukraine causing an energy crisis, there's talk of keeping the last three plants running a bit longer. It's like Germany is considering keeping those old nuclear cars in the garage, just in case.

October 2022: Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Merkel's successor, decides to extend the life of the remaining three plants until April 2023. It's a short pit stop on the way to a nuclear-free future.

April 15, 2023: The final curtain falls. Germany's last three nuclear power plants are shut down. It's the end of an era, like closing the book on a long and contentious chapter in Germany's energy story.

Is the manufacturing collapse all due to energy though?

No in short.

In a bit longer: German complacency is the issue.

Let me explain.

The China Connection

For years, Germany has been cosying up to China, seeing it as a massive market for its exports and a source of cheap production. But this love affair has started to sour:

• China's economic slowdown (from 8.4% growth in 2021 to just 3% in 2022) has put a dent in demand for German goods.

• Geopolitical tensions are making German companies rethink their reliance on China. A survey found 12% of manufacturers plan to relocate production, with the U.S. and China being top destinations.

• An abrupt halt to trade with China could cause Germany's economy to shrink by 5% in the short run, according to one study.

So while Germany's China strategy has boosted its economy in the past, it's now becoming a liability as the global landscape shifts.

Energy Woes

Then there's the Energiewende, Germany's ambitious plan to transition to renewables. It's been a bit of a double-edged sword:

• The nuclear phase-out has made Germany more reliant on gas, especially from Russia. When prices soared due to the Ukraine war, it hit German industry hard.

• Energy-intensive sectors like chemicals, metals, and glass have underperformed due to high energy costs. Some companies, like BASF, have even shut down production lines.

• Uncertainty over energy policy is making 37% of industrial companies consider cutting production or relocating abroad, up from 21% in 2022.

While the Energiewende has created some green opportunities, it's also left German industry vulnerable to energy price shocks.

Complacency and Competition

Finally, there's a sense that Germany may have gotten a bit too comfortable with its industrial prowess:

• Germany has long benefited from cheap Russian gas and a strong position in China, which may have led to some complacency.

• Meanwhile, the U.S. and China are luring German manufacturers with lower costs and more stability.

• Germany's workforce is aging, and its progress on digitalization and green tech is lagging.

In short, Germany's traditional strengths are being challenged from all sides.

The Bottom Line

So, is Germany deindustrialising? Not quite, but it's facing some serious headwinds. The China slowdown, energy price crunch, and global competition are all taking a toll. The Energiewende has played a role, but it's part of a bigger picture of Germany struggling to adapt to a new reality.

As one analyst put it, Germany needs to adopt "drastic reforms" in the next few years to prevent industry from moving abroad. It's a wake-up call for a country that's long prided itself on its industrial might.

But hey, if anyone can engineer a solution, it's probably the Germans! They just need to channel that famous efficiency and innovation into navigating this new landscape — Vorsprung Durch Teknik and all that…

Or maybe not, since as I am writing this, news has come out…

A little hint there, perhaps as to what I’m thinking stock buying wise if you know your car owners…

I’m dropping a stock related to this on Monday, join Fink Ultimate now to get these winning investment ideas into your inbox.