I bet I can trick you...

⚡ The Spark
Sh*t Squared?

Streaming wars become streaming alliances

It was always going to happen. Too many companies jumped on board the stream train, saturating the market. Then the public realised that paying each service separately was pretty damn expensive.

Especially when the product isn’t always top drawer.

The inevitable cycle is underway…

Apple & Paramount are reportedly in talks to combine their services into a cheaper combined package

While Netflix & Warner Brothers are partnering with Verizon to offer a discounted streaming bundle.

If you stop and think about it, bundling, unbundling & re-bundling is 90% of what we call ‘innovation’.

🧠 The Big Brain
Why Short Selling Should Be Banned

We believe in free markets, but…

Seriously, 99%* of people don’t understand the mechanics of short-selling.

^{*This study has not been, ahem, peer reviewed}

Same people that have watched the Big Short a hundred times & think Michael Burry is some kind of genius. They get all aroused by the idea of being a hero that shorted the top.

Calling bullshit on ‘everything’ is so appealing in a world full of bullshit.

Here’s why we think you should ban yourself from shorting (except the Euro - send it straight to zero)

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💡 The Lightbulb
I bet I can trick you...

Why you can’t trust your brain

Quick experiment. What’s the answer to this question?

A ball and a bat cost $1.10 together, and the bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

Even if you’ve seen this before (and already know the correct answer), your brain’s probably screaming at you right now:

TEN CENTS DUMMY OMG THIS IS SO EASY

Or words to that effect.

But I’ve already told you it’s a trick, so surely it can’t be that simple…

The answer is five cents.

Your intuitive brain might not accept this straight away, but I promise you, it’s 100% correct:

This is a classic illustration of Thinking Fast & Slow, Kahneman’s theory of how we think.

System one fires first. It’s efficient, almost a reflex action.

Then system two gets involved, and does all of that (slower) reasoning & thinking.

If we wanted to bypass system one’s intuitive thinking we’d change the numbers in the question:

A ball and a bat cost $13.27 together, and the bat costs $6.09 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

System one will usually give up on that and just hand it across to the next department for proper processing.

Intriguingly, system one isn’t great at giving up on that first response.

In a variation of the original study, the authors wrote in bold underneath the question:

“The answer to this question is five cents. On the blank below, write five cents.”

Surely, everyone gets the right answer now…

Almost a quarter of respondents were told the answer and still got it wrong. Astounding.

Takeaway: Your intuition is as trustworthy as a politician

The above was inspired by this fantastic note from Kris at Moontower, summarising an interview with Todd Simkin, director at SIG (like a think tank on the subject of decision-making).

Well worth a read/listen!