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- 🔔 Introducing... Mr Yolo Beeches
🔔 Introducing... Mr Yolo Beeches
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As promised in Monday's Opening Belle, I'll introduce you to Mr Yolo Beeches.
But first, let's set the scene...
We'll start with a profile of his mum (steady), Mrs Watanabe...
In the early 2000s, global fund managers had to anticipate the every move of “Mrs Watanabe”
The period between 2002 and 2006, when the Bank of Japan’s zero-interest rate policy began to feel like a permanent fixture, was the heyday for this notional archetype of a conservative Japanese householder, dabbling in international markets to plug the gap left by low salaries and paltry interest rates.
Mrs Watanabe is addicted to yield and loves a bit of danger...
Don't tell her husband, but she's got quite the history: jumping into volatile affairs with Brazilians before finding Turkish joy in 2012 although that all ended in tears three years ago...
Just in case you're not following, Mrs Watanabe was the name given to Japan's 'army of retail investors...'
'Contrary to the widespread notion of "Mrs Watanabe," most of the traders are middle-age men who've been driven into the market by years of ultra-low interest rates.
They toil in offices by day and trudge home to moonlight in foreign exchange, hoping to build a family nest egg in a country where banks pay savers next to nothing.'...
We've touched on the globalised Japanification theme already, and I think this could become dominant across the developed world in the coming years...
(Although I would LOVE to be wrong on this)
Generational inequality has worsened, and whilst policymakers have taken note, I don't think the appetite is quite there to fix any of this yet...
Policymakers are talking the talk but these changes aren't easy, especially when political survivial is the name of the game... 👇
What needs to be true for things to change?
I think we will likely see new parties forming alongside new policies aimed specifically at Millennials and younger...
As people tire of the status quo, they tend to shift away from the traditional parties towards those who promise change...
We've seen evidence of this voter rebellion already: 4 million odd UKIP votes, Brexit & Trump are great examples...
Over in Germany, we're seeing a post-Merkel political change too: the rise of the Green Party 👇
As with UKIP & the Brexit vote, these parties don't need to get into power to influence policy...
It's hard to see how we'll get any change to generational equality unless (until?) we shift towards MMT and/or Central Bank Digital Currencies are used to deliver policy outcomes more directly
The MMT genie IS out of the lamp now (i.e. everyone knows something can be done) but so far no-one agrees on how many wishes the genie is offering, what those wishes should be and if they come with conditions attached...
Back to the point!
Political change is a painfully slooooow process, and a critical mass of Millennial politicians is unlikely for another decade or so.
What happens in the meantime?
Beeches... Yolo Beeches, a pleasure to meet you
Let's talk about Yolo...
Much like Mrs Watanabe, his world is one of low interest rates with limited chance of advancing beyond the daily grind or even building a savings pot.
He finds himself living one payday to the next...
Priced out of the housing market with few prospects of changing his life by 'conventional' means, Yolo's risk appetite grows...
Credit is freely available...
Why not try and beat the market and change your life, Yolo?
What have you got to lose?
And we're not talking these levels of returns 👇
If you are in the UK and have your pension in the FTSE you should be having serious words with your advisor. A one year return of 17%. That’s awful. Don’t speak to me about dividends either. 🤦🏻— Jim Osman (@EdgeCGroup) April 28, 2021
‘I want a good return and don’t want to risk my money’ = Typical person in the UK. 🤦🏻— Jim Osman (@EdgeCGroup) April 28, 2021
WSB, Robinhood & the Crypto crew are here to stay!
As we settle into the post-pandemic world, these same trends will resurface, and the risk-hungry retail army will return with a vengeance...
What have they got to lose?
Mrs Watanabe needs to watch out, her son's taking this party global...
Improving margins, strong demand for loans, lower operating costs, and the intention to resume dividends - what's not to like?!
The market gapped higher post-release
CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio leaves on a high before he takes up the reins at Credit Suisse in May...
“You should continuously try to face new challenges,” he says
He's certainly got himself a challenge there!
On Lloyds, this was our view 3 weeks ago:
👇👇👇👇👇 Full Details 👇👇👇👇👇
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