- Fink 🧠
- Posts
- 🔔 The Lazy Unemployed Narrative
🔔 The Lazy Unemployed Narrative
EQONEX: Institutional-grade crypto exchange, built to support and enhance crypto adoption.
Utrust: Accept payments in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major digital currencies
"It's basically a mass UBI trial"
"People will just stay home and collect benefits instead of going to work"
We saw loads of responses along those lines when the US government announced the generous unemployment (UE) program last year.
Due to expire on the 6th of September nationwide, many states chose to end the supplementary UE benefits sooner amid a worker shortage...
Basically, end the benefits and people will be forced to go back to work. Worker shortage solved. Vote for me. ✊
The counter-argument was always that many workers did not have childcare, school closures, plus hesitancy over Covid risks, vaccinations and so on...
There have been a few studies on the wider impact of removing support, and this one caught my eye... 👇👇👇
🚨New study using new bank-transaction level data: What did ending pandemic UI do to jobs, income, spending?🚨
We find:
*Large drop in share receiving UI
*For every 8 losing UI, 1 found job by Aug
*Added earnings made up for only 7% of benefit loss
*Large 20% drop in spending
1/— Arindrajit Dube (@arindube) August 20, 2021
A previous study via JP Morgan found that benefits were not a main driver of job-seeking... 👇👇👇
It's the impact on spending that markets will be most mindful of.
While everyone's worried about a fast employment recovery causing the Fed to remove policy support, it would also lead to stronger consumption that underpins the recovery.
There are plenty of savings, but the vast majority is in the hands of those with the lowest propensity to consume (as mentioned here) 👇👇
Sponsored: Nasdaq listed crypto exchange Eqonex are celebrating their birthday! Don't miss out! 👇👇👇
This is the final week to enjoy the EQONEX first-anniversary welcome bonus offer.
Win $50 in #EQO when you create an account on EQONEX today.
We only turn ONE once. Offer ends on August 31. https://t.co/9JXTc3GieO pic.twitter.com/tJdXZbYfqu— EQONEX (@eqonex) August 23, 2021
From Evergrande to a Chinese Country Garden...
We've covered Evergrande at great length over the past couple of years...
The end is nigh, and the trade is done...
When a company is forced to liquidate its HQ, it's never good news.
China Evergrande Group plans to sell its Hong Kong headquarter building to Yuexiu Property for HK$10.5 billion. The two companies are expected to confirm the deal soon.
Source: Singtao#China #Evergrande https://t.co/yMIviAJuS5 pic.twitter.com/wcrWD6OeTi— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) August 23, 2021
There's really no point shorting it now, BUT...
The issues in question are not unique to Evergrande and more Chinese developers could easily follow...
Take Country Garden for example.
Another of China's largest developers (with the unironic 2007 ticker) overlaid here with Evergrande...
Time to play catchup?
Sponsored: Easily receive crypto payments with Utrust 👇👇👇
UK stamp duty holiday was not behind the pandemic rise in house prices...
NEW REPORT: While many have blamed the stamp duty holiday for the pandemic-defying rise in house prices, new RF analysis by Lindsay Judge, @KrishanSays & @FeliciaAyensua suggests its role has been overstated. Full report here - and here's a summary thread... pic.twitter.com/IGgNOmMH2H— Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) August 21, 2021
Lots of interesting facts and figures in there, but this is all you really need to look at to see that the stamp duty holiday was not the true driver... 👇👇👇
If it was JUST the stamp duty holiday, then other countries would not have seen the same effect...
UK has underperformed. If only there was some kind of common factor linking these house price increases...
