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LOL, We’re Just Guessing Mate
How the UK jobs market could be seriously weakening or REALLY strong
Tim Vollans
November 30, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
⚡ The Spark
LOL, We’re Just Guessing Mate
How the UK jobs market could be seriously weakening or really strong
I know that sounds insane, but it is what it is. The data can’t be trusted. We’ve touched on this before.
Basically, response rates to surveys have been falling, so official stats offices have a much smaller sample size of data to work with.
Which makes the data (even) less reliable.
The ONS, to their credit, are trying to innovate, and develop the Transformed Labour Force Survey.
They say it’s experimental so we shouldn’t pay too much attention to the initial readings...
But those initial readings found that the UK unemployment rate was 3.5% in Q2 2023.
The ‘official’ estimate for UK unemployment in that period was 4.2%.
That’s a MASSIVE difference.
Maybe the economy’s been stronger than anyone realised…
It’s not just the unemployment data either. The economic growth figures were all over the show. Per the FT:
The ONS has come under political pressure over the reliability of its data after revisions to GDP figures that showed the UK had bounced back from the pandemic better than indicated by the agency’s initial estimates.
The upgrade of post-pandemic growth in September was heralded by chancellor Jeremy Hunt as evidence that “those determined to talk down the British economy have been proved wrong”.
Hunt might want to swing by the Bank of England and have a word with the boss…
The article is a work of art. The Hall of Famers are all in there. The OBR, Resolution, Bank of England, all confidently forecasting dismal things for the UK despite their own atrocious forecasting records.
And more importantly, using data that nobody can rely on.
Beautiful.
🧠 The Big Brain
The King Is Back
The dollar’s in recovery mode.
Weighing up the reasons for this to be a sustainable dollar reversal rather than a simple pullback within the trend.
Especially against the Euro…
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💡 The Lightbulb
Metro Bank Is Changing
The bank isn’t bankrupt. It’s not gonna be the same either.
Back in October, Metro Bank was on the brink.
Then, Colombian billionaire Jaime Gilinski stepped in and offered a rescue deal. Shareholders formally accepted a few days ago.
Now the bank is reportedly trying to sell their 3 billion pound residential mortgage portfolio to Barclays…
And, perhaps more importantly, change the high-cost business model.
20% of staff are set to lose their jobs, and the bank will be “reviewing seven-day opening and extended store hours across the store network”.
Which was basically the entire attraction of Metro Bank in the first place.
You know things aren’t good when they’re tripling the deposit rates they offer to customers…
The challenger bank is offering a variable rate of 5.22% on new instant-access deposits for a limited period of 12 months, up from the standard 1.65%. The lender also raised its rate for one-year fixed savings accounts to 5.91% from 5.21%. The rates are among the highest in the UK.
The billionaire behind the buyout reckons he can turn the ship around:
“Everything in life is possible… I have seen that in other situations in Latin America, where we start small and we build much larger financial institutions . . . it’s a question of hard work, a lot of luck and a lot of concentration.”
Everything is possible. But is it probable…?
Time will tell if it works out.
Selling off the mortgage book and paying through the nose for customer deposits will only fix problems in the short term.
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