💵 The Macro Soap Operas

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Stories make the world go round. They're embedded in everything we do, in our identities, our cultures, our humanity. We use stories to make sense of our world and to share that understanding with others.

Errr great, (cool story bro) but what does this have to do with markets?

Everything. That's literally what markets are. Humans telling each other stories about the world. Stories about the past. The future. Change.

All of which combine to spawn the one true market overlord...

But there's a problem with stories. Although they help us communicate, the best stories create emotion. They make us feel. Which isn't usually synonymous with facts or accuracy...

Big media (not real, but fun to say) knows this and uses emotional triggers to hook us in. Clickbait headlines and those OMG, I can't believe (insert famous / controversial personality) did (literally anything for attention) social posts.

This business model has been around for years. The internet has allowed it scale into a weapon of mass distraction.

Before the internet, we had soap operas...

Technically, they're still around, but 'back in the day', leading soap operas were THE biggest shows on TV.

Which is where the 'macro soap operas' come in...

Such a perfect description. An entire sub-industry of macro/finance is built around these 'soap operas'. The resurgence in death of the dollar think-pieces is just the latest example.

However, reality isn't just stories. As world renowned macro-thinker and public speaker David Chappelle once said 👇

We're not going to dig into the dollar stuff again. Suffice to say, it comes around regularly, and has done for many, many years now. So far, there's been no follow through.

One day there might be a realistic challenger, but none of the recent hype has been backed by anything other than hyperbole (as usual)... 👇

Nah, what we (much like Dave Chappelle) have had enough of is 'this shit'.

Life isn't a soap opera

Surely you've met at least one person that LOVES some drama in their lives?

They're basically the world's worst people. They drag you in to their chaos. Before you know it you're entangled in their storyweb, confused and forlorn, like a captured fly...

By the time you notice, it's too late. Your money's gone. Which is really why we care.

Soap operas can be good entertainment. But macro soap operas have consequences. People buy into the drama, the storyline, the simplistic nature of winners vs losers, good guys against bad guys...

And there will always be elements of that in markets. But ultimately, macro is an infinite game, the merger of everything. There's no end (and if there is we'll be too dead to care).

That everything is human survival, and where possible, prosperity. Sure there'll be some twists and turns along the way, but in the end, the same patterns repeat, usually in very similar ways.

Change is hard. That's why the words "this time is different" are the four most dangerous in the investment world.

Things are always 'different', but they're also mainly the same.

When OPEC+ cuts production, it's not to hurt the West. It's because demand isn't looking so hot. It's doing what the cartel is designed to do. Protect their own interests.

They've cut and expanded production literally hundreds, or maybe thousands of times before.

Of course, by protecting their own interests, they might ALSO be 'hurting the West' by pushing oil prices higher, but that's not the goal. It's just supply management to ensure stable prices.

Which is SERIOUSLY boring. Imagine working in media and being told to produce an article or short video clip about that... 👇

OPEC+ Does Job

Stay tuned for more fascinating updates!!

That just doesn't work.

Eyeballs = money. The entire media industry is incentivised to sell you a story. In the world of finance though, facts DO matter.

Not all the time. Not even often. But when the chips are down, all of those narratives built around ideals and strange assumptions like this is a world where everyone gets exactly what they want, just crumble away.

Negotiation is part of trade. Compromise is a necessary, unpleasant & boring reality of life. Yes, narratives can be exceedingly powerful, but we need to acknowledge them for what they are...

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