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Making fake news great again
Is (financial) social media still a good bet?
š§ The Big Brain
Our liquidity is strong
Things you hear just beforeā¦
Right. We can definitely expect to hear more about systemic liquidity over coming months.
Barclays reckons the Fedās RRP facility will be fully drained. That could be hugely significant, or not matter in the slightest.
It all depends what happens ānextāā¦
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ā” The Spark
Canadaās economy is getting frosty
Services activity āfalls to greatest degree since June 2020ā
Thatās according to the latest PMI data:
Novemberās index reading came in at 44.5, down from 46.6 in October.
It was the lowest level since June 2020 and consistent with a steep decline in activity. Moreover, the index has now posted below 50.0 for six months in a row.
Overall, new business was down for a fourth successive month, and to the greatest degree for nearly three years.
The commentary is starting to look bleak. All the boxes youād tick for recessionary dynamics are right there:
Concurrent declines in new orders ā were also recorded, and there was evidence of spare capacity ā with backlogs of work falling to the greatest degree for nearly three-and-a-half years. ā
Private sector employment fell slightly ā for the first time in three months, although the contraction was centred on services as manufacturing staffing levels increased. š
Cost inflation remained elevated, though eased to a six month low. (disinflation)
Output charge inflation was little-changed but remained well below that of input costs and thereby pointing to continued margin pressure ā for private sector companies in November.
Output down, spare capacity, new orders declining, employment slightly lower, and margin pressure continuingā¦
The PMIās are not painting a pretty picture. Canadian recession incoming?
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8f90861d-7e49-4028-a330-c9e8880ba112/image.png?t=1701790915)
In other news, Toronto home prices are down 19% from the peakā¦
š” The Lightbulb
Making fake news great again
Is (financial) social media still a good bet?
There was a time, when I first got into markets, that social media was AMAZING for financial knowledge.
No question. Sure you had a few larpers, but they were generally lying about themselves rather than what was going on in the world.
Knowledge, news. It was unparalleled.
That bit hasnāt changed. There are still loads of amazing, knowledgeable & generous people sharing value. Theyāre just harder to find now.
Drowned out by fake news distractions.
Like this that did the rounds earlier today:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c2400888-ae55-413d-a75e-5f547b89ddb2/image.png?t=1701792473)
The implication was that credit is tightening and this is proof.
Except Wells Fargo havenāt pushed HELOCās for years now. Basically since the pandemic. So nothing has changed. A totally false signal.
Yet stuff like this crops up all the time on socials.
And the rampant doomerism takes a toll too.
Either you believe it, and drown in fearā¦
Or you donāt believe it, and feel bad for the people who doā¦
50k to 200k views on these fiery thumbnail videos ā shows the appetite for dystopian finance takes remains as rabid as the demand for dystopian movies and novels.
Immunize yourself against accounts like these. Most crashanistas use a bit more subtlety, but give you essentiallyā¦ twitter.com/i/web/status/1ā¦
ā ŹllĒuuop ŹuĒɹq (@donnelly_brent)
11:18 AM ā¢ Dec 5, 2023
For me, itās still just about worth the tradeoff. Is it for you?
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