You down with NFP? Yeah you know me

"These reports and other developments suggest that the PRC's nuclear arsenal will grow more quickly, and to a higher level than perhaps previously anticipated," Price said using the acronym for the People's Republic of China.

"This buildup is concerning. It raises questions about the PRC's intent. And for us, it reinforces the importance of pursuing practical measures to reduce nuclear risks," he said.

"We encourage Beijing to engage with us on practical measures to reduce the risks of destabilizing arms races - potentially destabilizing tensions."

 🇺🇸🎯 Primary Dealer #NFPGuesses

Citi 860K

BofA 800K

Daiwa 800K

JPM 800K

Jefferies 800K

NatWest 800K

TD 800K

GS 750K

WF 750K

SocGen 730K

Nomura 720K

UBS 711K

CS 700K

DB 700K

Mizuho 700K

Scotia 700K

Amherst 690K

HSBC 675K

Barx 625K

BNP 625K

MS 620K

RBC 570K

BMO 550K

Median 711K— Anthony Barton (@ABartonMacro) July 2, 2021 

in response to an additional question, about 75% of analysts, or 38 of 51, suggested long dollar bets and short other major currencies or emerging market ones in the next three months as a positioning strategy.

"We are in a dollar positive regime for the next few months, which will generate some dollar strength in the near-term. But over a longer time horizon, we expect the dollar to remain in a fairly broad-based range,"

"This summer we see an opportunity for a tradable dollar rally as real rates rise and break-even inflation rates fall. The CFTC data and our conversations with investors suggests the market is still bearish on the dollar, both in actual positioning and in sentiment."

OPEC+ had been doing a good job up until now in showing a united front, with the group wanting to avoid a repeat of March last year when they failed to come to an agreement.

Heading into yesterday’s highly anticipated meeting, expectations were that OPEC+ would agree on a supply increase of 500Mbbls/d for August.

However, as the meeting got underway there were reports that the group had come to a preliminary agreement to increase output gradually by 2MMbbls/d between August and December.

It is unsurprising that the market rallied on the back of this news, which works out at an increase of just 400Mbbls/d per month, less than the market was expecting at least for August.

OPEC+ had also reportedly come to a preliminary agreement to extend the output cut deal from April 2022 until the end of 2022, with worries that the market would return to surplus when the deal expires in April.

Both of these factors are constructive for the market, and this was reflected in the price action as details emerged, with Brent edging closer towards US$77/bbl.

However, despite the preliminary agreement, the group failed to come to a final agreement.

The sticking issue was the UAE wanting to increase its baseline for production cuts, which would in effect mean that the UAE would be allowed to increase output further.

Currently, the UAE’s baseline is around 3.2MMbbls/d, and there are reports that they want this increased to around 3.8MMbbls/d.

This request was rejected by other members. Talks are set to resume today, in order to try to reach a deal.

Failure to come to an agreement could mean that the group continues with current levels of production, which would mean that the market tightens even quicker.

Although, the will of some members to stick to their quota under such a scenario would likely be weak, and there is the potential for supply to increase regardless.