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nomura bears
GM.
Charlie McEligot, the absolutely brilliant quantimental fella at Nomura doesn’t seem to happy about the tilt for Tariff Day (as if anyone really is).
Here’s an email we saw from him.

Some appeasement on the lack of sectoral tariffs while the general tariff inclusion is bearish…
He goes on to say…
it’s becoming increasingly evident to many that April 2 “Liberation Day” is not “clearing” much of any "event-risk" · …Instead, it’s being perceived as a spring-board for further policy uncertainty via tariff retaliations, rhetoric escalations, or (hopefully) concessions…because this is good for nobody, as a clear “Growth Shock” catalyst which ultimately fattens left tail “Hard-Landing” / “Recession” -risks · For those who have to be invested in Equities, there’s been a clear (and intuitive) “Low Beta” (Defensives, Low-Vol”) / “Up in Quality” (Size, Strong Balance Sheet) / “Value” (“Cheap stuff”) -trade ahead of the “Liberation Day,” all of which helped to insulate (and even perform) during the first wave of this Equities selloff since mid Feb’s ATH’s in SPX Source: Nomura Vol · Nevertheless, it is somewhat disturbing that we aren’t seeing the same “return dispersion” across R1k that we experienced during said last iteration of the Equities selloff.
We noted similar in our note yesterday — our dashboard had defensives as ticking up.
Today will be a mess.
Trade carefully.
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