🔔 The (Old) Economy Strikes Back

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We've been pretty harsh on the FTSE over the past year... 👇

While those criticisms are still valid, the FTSE is having a stormer today & already up 1% as the US session begins...

It's been helped by some of the heavy-hitters reporting strong earnings this morning.

Anglo American booked record profits and rewarded shareholders with over $4 billion in payouts.

• Interim dividend of 1.71 cents per share, up from 0.28 cents last year

• Special dividend of 0.8 cents per share, or $1 billion

• Plus a $1 billion share buyback programme

Maybe there is a case for a dividend strategy after all...

Anglo earnings (EBITDA) totalled $12.1 billion for the six months to June 30, and Chief Executive Mark Cutifani says they haven't even peaked.

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In more 'old economy' news, Shell also came in strong.

Profits are at the highest levels since 2018, dividends were boosted by 38% and a $2 billion share buyback was announced too.

All positive and comes just a couple of days after Shell announced the deal to buy US-based renewable energy retailer Inspire Energy.

The energy giant is under pressure to go green after a Dutch court ruling ordered them to cut emissions by 45% by 2030.

Perhaps most interesting were the CEO's comments on oil.

Ben Van Beurden commented that:

• OPEC isn't delivering a lot of volume to the market

• Doesn't expect considerable expansion in Non-OPEC production

• Oil supply is going to be constrained

• Future for demand is optimistic

If he's right, that means higher energy prices (as we mentioned here 👇)

The Economist picked up on the recent IEA report too

Heading in the wrong direction for now, but Bill's on the case 👇

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The media as a contrarian indicator: By the time it's news, it's in the price...

Tencent were the latest example.

Bloomberg notification pinged through early this morning 👇👇

Now, this doesn't work for just ANY notification. We need raw emotions and wild market swings too...

By the time the media is declaring anything as the worst or best and using emotive language like wipeout it's a pretty good indicator that the move is over.

China was already taking measures yesterday (way before this Bloomberg headline) with the stock way off the lows

Another example I saved a few years ago (back when USDTRY was in crisis) 👇

Those highs weren't broken for another six weeks (although USDTRY is trading with an 8 handle now so they were right in the end!)

One more to keep in mind... 👇

And if the dollar weakens for a couple of months we'll be able to roll out the old favourite 👇👇

Understanding human emotions is a huge part of understanding markets.