The Opening Belle

November 04, 2020 • Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

Well, it's been an topsy-turvy night and we're not done yet.

The only thing we know for sure is that pollsters will be added to the unemployment figures!

As things stand, it's all very messy and a clean outcome this morning looks impossible.

Trump is due to make a statement soon.

 We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020 

Trump has won Florida & Texas, Fox have called Arizona for Biden, and it's going to be a nail-biter for the other swing states, with vote-counting due to continue overnight (U.S. time).

This is how things stand in the presidential race.

Democrats are struggling to flip the senate (although the results are not yet final);

NY Times

Judging by the early behaviour in equitiess, the market is dying to get the election over with and resume their climb higher.

An early rally (presumably looking for an easy Biden win) was met with selling when Trump performed better than expected/Biden worse than expected.

More uncertainty was priced in, but then it looked likely that Trump would win, so markets really rallied, paring gains later in the session as Trump's momentum waned and it became obvious that a final decision was some way off.

Increasingly looks like Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania will hold the keys to the election.

All of which started their vote-processing very close to, or on, election day.

The London session is unlikely to see any major breakthroughs, but this afternoon could get very interesting as counts increase.

Services PMI's this morning and ISM this afternoon will provide a minor distraction, but the election is set to dominate news flow through today (at least).