The Opening Belle

Asian shares mainly lower overnight, with the ASX down 1.7%.

S&P futures are slightly up, sitting right on the 3400 handle. The dollar has weakened slightly after a better day yesterday.

Oil has also found a small bid from the lows. Further hurricane production disruptions in the gulf of Mexico (Hurricane Zeta) could offset the renewed supply from Libya.

European markets look to open slightly higher.

 European Opening Calls:#FTSE 5802 +0.18%#DAX 12225 +0.39%#CAC 4819 +0.06%#AEX 547 +0.24%#MIB 19018 +0.38%#IBEX 6844 +0.69%#OMX 1779 +0.20%#STOXX 3112 +0.22%#IGOpeningCall— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) October 27, 2020 

 PBOC cut #yuan's fixing by 264 pips to 6.6989 per USD, vs 6.6725 one day earlier.— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) October 27, 2020 

Profits at China’s industrial firms rose for a fifth straight month in September, but at a slower pace as factory-gate deflation and rising raw materials costs undercut a recovery in the manufacturing sector.

Profits at Chinese industrial firms in September rose 10.1% year-on-year to 646.43 billion yuan ($96.34 billion), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Tuesday.

That marked the fifth month of profit growth albeit slower than a 19.1% increase in August.

Zhu Hong, a senior statistician at the NBS, attributed the slower growth in September to deepening declines in factory-gate prices, rising losses from asset depreciation and increasing raw material costs for auto and electronics sectors.

Factory gate prices, a key barometer of industrial demand, fell at a faster-than-expected pace in September, and consumer inflation slowed to its weakest in 19 months.

“Although industrial profits continued to recover steadily in the first three quarters, cumulative operating income and profit growth have yet to turn positive, while growth rates of accounts receivable and inventory of finished goods are still high,” Zhu said.

“The foundation for continued improvements in corporate profits still needs to be consolidated.”

For January-September, industrial firms’ profits fell 2.4% on an annual basis to 4.37 trillion yuan, with the downturn easing from a 4.4% decrease in the first eight months.

Profit margins at big industrial firms rose 13.8% in the third quarter from a year ago, compared with a 4.0% fall in the second quarter, while earnings at small industrial firms rose 15.8% in the third quarter, NBS data showed.

Will be interesting to see if this trend continues. 'Inventories of finished goods are still high', global virus cases are resuming, and China's domestic market is not showing a huge desire to 'consume'  enough to compensate.

Onto the European restrictions....

In France, the president of the scientific council says that "this second wave will surely be stronger than the first" and "many of our fellow citizens have not yet realized what lies ahead".

In view of new record numbers of new corona infections, the French government is apparently planning a new lockdown for three large metropolitan areas, namely for the greater Paris area, Lyon and Marseille. The first plans for this were drawn up in a meeting on Monday.

According to BILD information, a three-week lockdown could start in these metropolises from Friday evening - details are to be announced on Wednesday. Whether this drastic scenario will ultimately be chosen will be decided in the next two days.

The following rules would come into force in this case:

â–ş A general curfew should apply from 7 p.m.

â–ş Appropriate permission is required to use public transport. A general curfew should even apply at the weekend.

â–ş All shops - with the exception of supermarkets - should close.

â–ş In addition, you should always work from home.

Witnesses said a number of luxury stores, including a Gucci fashion shop, were ransacked in central Turin as crowds of youths took to the streets after nightfall, letting off huge firecrackers and lighting coloured flares.

Police responded with volleys of tear gas as they tried to restore order in the city, the capital of the wealthy Piedmont region.

There were also clashes in Milan, the capital of the neighbouring Lombardy region, an area that has borne the brunt of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy.

“Freedom, freedom, freedom,” crowds chanted as they confronted police in the city centre.

The Italian government on Sunday ordered bars and restaurants to close by 6 p.m. and shut public gyms, cinemas and swimming pools to try to slow a second wave of coronavirus infections that is battering much of the country.

A number of regions, including Lombardy and Piedmont, have also imposed nighttime curfews.

Many small businesses, still badly bruised by an initial nationwide lockdown in March and April, say the new restrictions could bankrupt them.

While Italians complied peacefully to the spring lockdown, there has been an immediate pushback against the renewed restrictions. Protesters took to the streets of up to a dozen cities on Monday, including Treviso, Trieste, Viareggio, Latina, Rome, Naples, Salerno, Palermo, Siracusa and Catania.

Looking to calm tensions, the government has said it will present a package of measures on Tuesday to support businesses hurt by the new restrictions.

An interesting story, but not for the headline. A new business model?  

HSBC Holdings PLC said on Tuesday it plans to accelerate its restructuring plan, slashing costs further than previously suggested, flipping its model from generating income mainly from interest rates to fee-based business, and shrinking in size.

The plans were unveiled as it posted a less-than-expected 35% drop in quarterly profit and flagged an easing in its provisions for bad loans, citing an expected improvement in the economic outlook in its main markets.

Reported pretax profit for Europe’s biggest bank by assets came in at $3.1 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down from $4.8 billion in the same period a year earlier.

The profit was higher than the $2.07 billion average of analysts’ estimates compiled by the bank.

Asia-focused HSBC said it expected losses from bad loans to be at the lower end of the $8 billion to $ 13 billion range it set out earlier this year.

“This latest guidance, which continues to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty due to Covid-19 and geopolitical tensions, assumes that the likelihood of further significant deterioration in the current economic outlook is low,” it said.

Faced with fewer options to bolster revenue growth, HSBC has been looking to reduce costs globally and in June resumed plans to cut around 35,000 jobs it had put on ice after the coronavirus outbreak.

Other measures in the lender’s global restructuring drive, unveiled in February, include the disposal of its French business, which it may have to sell at a big loss, Reuters reported last month.

HSBC, which in common with other British lenders stopped paying dividends earlier this year at the request of regulators, said it would communicate a revised dividend policy in February 2021.

The stock rallied 5% post-earnings as HSBC “said it would consider paying a 2020 dividend after the bank unveiled a better-than-expected third quarter profit on lower provisions for bad loans.”

In their first call since last Wednesday, the two main negotiators still had not resolved language for a national testing and tracing program for the coronavirus, according to Pelosi’s spokesman Drew Hammill.

“We continue to eagerly await the Administration’s acceptance of our health language,” including the testing strategy, Hammill tweeted Monday. He said Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke for 52 minutes.

Pelosi remains “optimistic” about reaching a deal before Election Day, Hammill said. But with eight days to go until then and the Senate scheduled to leave town later Monday, the lack of an imminent agreement largely extinguished prospects of any legislation being written, voted on, and signed into law by President Donald Trump by Nov. 3.

 đź‡şđź‡¸ MCCONNELL HAS ADJORNED THE U.S SENATE UNTIL NOV 9 ENDING THE PROSPECTS FOR A #COVID #STIMULUS BILL BEFORE THE ELECTION - FOX NEWS— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) October 27, 2020 

Expect the headlines and accusations to continue regardless.

President Donald Trump reveled in one of his signature achievements on Monday at a White House ceremony to celebrate U.S. Senate confirmation of his third Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, eight days before the election.

Trump was annoying the twitter police again last night too;

 Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd.— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020 

A U.S.-backed ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh was in jeopardy on Monday as Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces renewed fighting in the mountain enclave, defying international efforts to end a conflict that has killed hundreds in the last month.

Looking ahead, another day of headline watching, earnings reports, and a little more data on the calendar.

This morning we have French PPI, Spanish & French unemployment, and the Euro area bank lending survey will confirm if the credit taps are still wide open.

This afternoon, we see U.S. durable goods orders, redbook retail sales and consumer confidence.