The Opening Belle

Risk sentiment is positive to start the week, with China outperforming.

U.S. futures pointing higher

In Europe;

 Grinding higher, led by China.

European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6025 +0.14%#DAX 13125 +0.56%#CAC 4981 +0.70%#AEX 572 +0.78%#MIB 19760 +0.84%#IBEX 7012 +0.88%#OMX 1850 +0.52%#STOXX 3292 +0.58%#IGOpeningCall— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) October 12, 2020 

Stimulus talks latest;

“The all or nothing approach is an unacceptable response to the American people”

The Trump administration on Sunday called on Congress to pass a stripped-down coronavirus relief bill using leftover funds from an expired small-business loan program, as negotiations on a broader package ran into resistance.

Congress should “immediately vote” on legislation to enable the use of the unused Paycheck Protection Program funds, which total around $130 billion.

 PBOC Sets Yuan Mid-Point At 6.7126 / DLR VS Last Close 6.6932— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 12, 2020 

The Yuan hit a 17 month high against the dollar on Friday.

There had been some speculation that a stronger Yuan was a deliberate policy move by China, but that always seemed unlikely.

Nordea

As Nordea note, this will do little to change the longer term flows, but it does give a clear signal to the market that 6.70 is the floor for now.

PBoC are not expected to cut rates this year.

Trump is getting back on the campaign trail

Trump was cleared by his doctor.

He is no longer considered a coronavirus transmission risk to others, self-isolation is no longer required.

We're heading into the home straight now, so we can expect to hear a lot more from Trump.

For markets, the only thing that matters is if his polling numbers pick up in the key swing states.

In my view, the consensus that Biden wins at a canter is likely to fade as we near November 3rd.

Brexit

French President Emmanuel Macron and other EU leaders will insist on tough enforcement rules for any trade deal with Britain, warning that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s bid to override the Brexit treaty has shown Britain’s word cannot be trusted, the Financial Times reported.

EU diplomats said leaders at a summit starting on Thursday would call on EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to ensure that "level playing field" guarantees for European businesses competing with British companies are backed by the right for Brussels to take rapid retaliatory action if Britain breaches its commitments, the FT reported on Monday. on.ft.com/34MuVHF

France and other fishing nations in the EU will emphasise their determination to preserve quota rights in British waters, leaving Barnier with limited space to tease out a deal, the newspaper reported.

The EU wants to secure consistent rights to fish in British waters, an important issue for France where coastal fishing communities are politically influential. Britain wants a deal more like that of non-EU member Norway, under which quotas are set each year.

Johnson has set a deadline of the Oct. 15 EU summit for agreement on a deal, and an EU diplomat said on Friday Barnier wants a few more concessions from Britain before entering the last intense phase of negotiations on a trade deal.

Johnson told German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday that progress must be made in post-Brexit trade talks with the European Union in coming days to bridge “significant gaps”, in particular in the areas of fisheries and the level playing field, his office said.

Johnson repeated his belief that “while achieving a deal in the coming days would be beneficial for both sides, the UK was also prepared to end the transition period on Australia-style terms”.

New UK Covid Restrictions Incoming

More clarity on restrictions is expected later, with new curbs to be reviewed after a month.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will chair a meeting of the emergency Cobra committee "to determine the final interventions".

He will then announce changes in the Commons, before speaking at a Downing Street press conference in the evening.

The prime minister is expected to be joined by Chancellor Rishi Sunak and England's Chief Medical Officer Prof Chris Whitty.

The strictest of the three new alert levels, labelled “very high”, is expected to entail the closure of pubs, bars, casinos and gyms.

Ministers have decided to focus on closing “drinking-led” establishments while allowing restaurants to remain open, according to one cabinet source. There was some confusion last night, though, as reports claimed that restaurants may be closed with only takeaway meals allowed.

Curbs on households mixing, and strong guidance against making non-essential trips out of the local area, are also expected to be included in the “very high” alert level. Travel for work and school will still be permitted.

The UK is far from alone in taking these steps.

Italy is preparing fresh nationwide restrictions, including on private parties, in response to a recent spike in new coronavirus cases, Health Minister Roberto Speranza said on Sunday.

“Now we need a change of pace, and to intervene with measures, not comparable to those adopted in the past, which could allow us to put the contagion under control and avoid tougher measures later on,” he said in an interview with RAI state TV.

Speranza said he proposed a ban on private parties, involving both children and adults, while Rome would also target hours for bars and restaurants to reduce people’s contagion risks.

Other measures could involve sports with physical contact that offer no chance to wear a mask, he said without elaborating further.

Rome last Wednesday made it mandatory to wear face masks outdoors nationwide.

Oil Prices Under Pressure

Oil prices dropped for a second straight session on Monday as U.S. producers began restoring output after Hurricane Delta weakened, while a strike that had affected production in Norway came to an end.

Despite the storm’s impact on offshore operations, oil prices holding around $40 a barrel over the past few months encouraged U.S. energy firms to add oil and natural gas rigs for a fourth week in a row last week, data from Baker Hughes showed.

Elsewhere, production in Libya, one of the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is expected to rise to 355,000 barrels per day on Monday after force majeure was lifted on the Sharara field from Sunday.

Production coming back online against a backdrop of weaker global demand and new mobility restrictions in Europe will keep the pressure on OPEC+.

The plan to taper production cuts early next year is looking very optimistic.

EU - Big Tech 'hit list'

The big technology platforms will have to comply with tougher regulation than smaller competitors, the newspaper reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the discussions.

New rules will force the companies to share data with rivals and be more transparent on how they gather information, the report said.

The list will be made based on parameters like market share and number of users, the newspaper said, adding that the exact number of companies and the precise criteria for the list was still being discussed.

Looking ahead, a very quiet calendar

U.S bond markets are closed for Columbus day, and there are no U.S. data releases.

German wholesale prices are the only data point this morning.

ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, Schnabel, Panetta are all scheduled to speak.

BoE’s Bailey & Haskel will also share their thoughts.

Lovely.