The Opening Belle

Asian indices generally lower overnight, Hang Seng bucking the trend.

U.S. futures turning slightly positive...

and European markets look to open in better spirits...

 European Opening Calls:#FTSE 5876 +0.74%#DAX 12759 +0.44%#CAC 4885 +0.98%#AEX 563 +0.39%#MIB 19183 +0.62%#IBEX 6835 +0.26%#OMX 1826 +0.70%#STOXX 3209 +0.51%#IGOpeningCall— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) October 16, 2020 

Oil prices fell on Friday on concerns that major producers will move ahead with plans to ease their supply cuts even as a spike in COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States is curtailing demand in two of the world’s biggest fuel consuming regions.

A technical committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied oil producers, a group know as OPEC+, ended a meeting on Thursday expressing concerns about rising oil supply as social restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 limit fuel usage.

OPEC+ is set to reduce its current supply cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2 million bpd in January even as OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo admits fuel demand is looking “anaemic.”

The bearish demand outlook and rising supply from Libya may mean OPEC+ could roll over the existing cuts into next year, OPEC+ sources said on Thursday.

There is an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Nov. 30 to Dec. 1 to set policy.

“All eyes are on OPEC+ move from January,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.

“Still, a resurgence in coronavirus infections in Europe and some parts in the United States raised fears over weaker fuel demand, weighing on the market sentiment,” Kikukawa said.

If you can't beat 'em...?

China is set to pass a new law that would restrict sensitive exports vital to national security, expanding its toolkit of policy options as competition grows with the U.S. over access to technologies that will drive the modern economy.

China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, is expected to adopt the measure in a session that concludes on Saturday. The Export Control Law primarily aims to protect China’s national security by regulating the export of sensitive materials and technologies that appear on a control list. It would apply to all companies in China, including foreign-invested ones.

The measure would add to Beijing’s regulatory arsenal, which also includes a tech export restriction catalog and an unreliable entity list. The law would also help put China on a similar footing to the U.S., which regularly uses export controls and licenses strategically against its adversaries.

Australia/China trade tensions - Coal, wine,and now cotton?

Australia's cotton industry is bracing for what could be a devastating blow as it becomes the latest casualty in the escalating trade tensions with China.

Chinese mills have been "discouraged" from buying Australian cotton, Government sources say

  • There are fears a 40 per cent tariff could be imposed on the trade

  • Australia sells about $800m worth of cotton to China annually

Mills in China are being told to stop buying Australian cotton as speculation grows that a hefty tariff is about to be slapped on the trade.

Government sources have told the ABC the cotton industry could face tariffs as high as 40 per cent, a sanction that could make the trade with China unviable.

Under China's current trade rules, the Chinese Government determines how much cotton each mill can import through a quota system.

But the ABC understands spinning mills have been warned not to use Australian product, or risk their quotas being slashed.

Without the government endorsement, these mills could be forced to pay 40 per cent more to buy Australian cotton.

Much like the coal situation, nothing official has been announced.

Looking ahead

The mixed stimulus messages continue.

McConnell said yesterday that the $1.8 trillion plan is “a much larger amount than I can sell to my members.”

Pelosi's spokesman said that Trump will "weigh in" with McConnell if a deal is reached.

Pelosi said “I’m not putting anything off until January”.

In a letter to colleagues, Pelosi insisted that stimulus was coming, and this line caught my eye.

It will be safer, bigger and better, and it will be retroactive.

It certainly seems like all parties just wants to play politics and assign the blame for now.

The pantomime continues, and a pre-election deal is looking a long way off.

If nothing is agreed today, McConnell will put the GOP $500 billion plan out for a vote on Monday.

Democrats filibustered the previous $300 billion plan as they considered it far too small.

Brexit headlines will continue to drop in throughout the day.

Roll on the weekend!

On the calendar

Final EU CPI figures this morning will offer no surprises.

A bit out of left field, but EU car registrations have my eye.

Auto sales have been picking up elsewhere, will be interested to see if the EU is following suit.

U.S. retail sales and University of Michigan sentiment the only data points of interest this afternoon