The Opening Belle

Remember, remember the 5th of November, the gunpowder treason and plot...

Is there really a plot against President Trump?

More importantly, will he claim there is and take action?

If it all came down to a single state, perhaps an escalation could be justified.

But it's not looking that way. Far from it.

Biden's closing in on the 270 needed to win.

Aside from demanding a few recounts, maybe Trump will surprise everyone and concede.

Equities are in a positive mood either way, wall to wall green in Asia overnight.

U.S. futures are positive, and the VIX is back below 30 as some of the election volatility subsides.

The U.S. 10 year remains in demand, yields 0.736% this morning.

NY Times

Arizona

Biden has a significant lead, and the Associated Press and Fox News have already called the state for the Democrat. With 86% of the expected vote counted, Biden leads with 50.7% against 47.9% for Trump, according to Edison Research.

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs told ABC News that Maricopa County, which includes heavily populated Phoenix, had about 400,000 outstanding ballots to be counted and would release more results later on Wednesday.

Georgia

Trump is holding onto a narrow lead, but several of the large counties around Atlanta that lean Democratic have substantial numbers of ballots still to count. With 95% of the expected vote counted, Trump is ahead with 49.7% versus 49% for Biden.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said he hoped to have a result by the end of Wednesday.

Under Georgia law, if the margin between the candidates is less than or equal to 0.5 percentage point, a candidate may request a recount within two business days following the certification of results.

Trump’s campaign filed a lawsuit to require that Chatham County, which includes Savannah, separate and secure late-arriving ballots to ensure they are not counted. The campaign said it had received information that late-arriving ballots in the county were improperly mingled with valid ballots.

Nevada

Long seen as a solid Biden-leaning state, Nevada now appears in play. Edison Research data shows 86% of the expected vote is in and Biden’s lead is just 49.3% to 48.7% for Trump.

State officials expect the remaining votes - largely mail-in ballots - to be counted by 9 a.m. PST (1700 GMT) on Thursday. Clark County, the state’s largest and home to Las Vegas, has tallied 84% of expected votes so far and Biden is ahead there 52.9% versus 45.4% for Trump.

North Carolina

The margin between Trump and Biden is less than 2 percentage points as the president clings to a lead of 50.1% to 48.7% for the Democrat, with 95% of the expected vote counted.

The state allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Tuesday to be counted if they are received by Nov. 12. On Wednesday morning, the Biden campaign said it expected a final result to take several days, and state officials said later on Wednesday that a full result would not be known until next week.

Pennsylvania

Of the battleground states, Pennsylvania has the furthest to go in counting votes, and Trump so far maintains a lead. With 88% of the expected vote counted, Trump is up 50.8% to 47.9% for Biden.

Officials there can accept mailed-in ballots up to three days after the election if they are postmarked by Tuesday. About 1 million votes remain to be counted, Governor Tom Wolf, a Democrat, said on Wednesday.

If the margin of victory is within half of 1%, state law requires a recount.

Away from the election, the Bank of England will announce changes to their monetary policy this morning at 7AM.

ING's base case matches the consensus among analysts, and they've got the best graphic.

The full preview can be found here.

The decision was originally expected for midday, but was rescheduled to avoid a clash with Chancellor Sunak's statement.

The Chancellor and the Bank of England will today announce a new package of measures to boost the economy as Britain heads into another lockdown.

Rishi Sunak is expected to confirm that furloughed workers will receive 80 per cent of their wages so long as their businesses are mandated to shut, after Boris Johnson told MPs they would not lose out after the second lockdown ends.

Mr Sunak is also likely to announce that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will have access to the furlough scheme should they follow England in imposing new national restrictions.

It comes as senior business leaders last night urged the Government to provide firms with certainty heading into the critical Christmas period by extending the furlough scheme into the new year.

While the Treasury refused to comment, Mr Sunak could alternatively increase the generosity of the job support scheme, currently postponed, which will be open to workers of any firm forced to close or suffering from restricted trading.

The move is likely to add billions of pounds to Government spending and follows claims from allies of Mr Sunak that he has been effectively “bounced” by Mr Johnson into agreeing more cash for the devolved administrations.

This evening's FOMC meeting should be a non-event, with no new monetary policy announcements expected.