The Opening Belle

Risk sentiment remained buoyant overnight.

Reuters summing up the market mood;

A gauge of Asian shares climbed to a one-month high on Thursday, as renewed hopes for more U.S. stimulus helped restore investor confidence with markets now pricing in a Democratic victory during elections in November.

U.S. Futures in the green too

Europe is set to follow suit

 European Opening Calls:#FTSE 5952 +0.10%#DAX 12973 +0.35%#CAC 4898 +0.33%#AEX 557 +0.46%#MIB 19503 +0.35%#IBEX 6947 +0.54%#OMX 1848 +0.46%#STOXX 3246 +0.39%#IGOpeningCall— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) October 8, 2020 

The VP debate had little impact, with all eyes on the next presidential election on the 15th (if it happens).

Stimulus saga continues

According to Mark Meadows (WH chief of staff), Trump spoke with congressional leaders yesterday.

Meadows believes there is a broad base of support to get a limited deal done, adding that Trump is willing to look at a counterproposal if Pelosi comes closer to the administrations position.

On the Democrat side, Pelosi's spokesperson said that Pelosi & Mnuchin discussed a standalone airlines bill, and have agreed to speak again today.

Trump released a video last night, saying therapeutics (Regeneron & Eli Lily antibody treatments) have been key for his recovery, he wants to make them free, and promising that the vaccine will be available right after the election.

 A MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT! pic.twitter.com/uhLIcknAjT— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2020 

Trump will be giving an interview to Fox later today, and we'll probably be hearing from him continually in the run up to the election.

There's no doubt his campaign is faltering.

Even the Fox polls show him falling further behind.

But we can't rule him out yet.

We've been here before...

Speaking of polls, Emerson College released this;

@themarketear

Will the election be won on economic policy?

Still at an impasse, and some big disagreements to overcome.

The German EU presidency has dangled the possibility of extra billions of euros in the bloc’s upcoming seven-year budget in a bid to break an impasse with the European Parliament over proposals to link payments of EU money to rule-of-law principles.

Michael Clauss, Germany’s ambassador to the EU, on Wednesday wrote to MEPs handling the budget negotiations, warning that time was of the essence if the EU’s planned recovery fund and budget programmes were to start at the beginning of next year.

Proposals agreed at the July EU summit to curb funding to countries deemed to be in breach of EU laws and values have triggered a split both between member states and with the European Parliament. Northern European countries and MEPs want the plan pitched by the German EU rotating presidency made tougher, while central European states such as Hungary say it is already too strict.

Mr Clauss, however, repeated that the mechanism would only kick in if breaches of the EU’s rule-of-law regime directly affected the sound management of the EU budget. The position stands firm against MEPs who want sanctions to kick in over contentious judicial reforms or clampdowns on free speech that have taken place in Hungary and Poland.

The gambit from the German presidency is also likely to encounter resistance from richer “frugal” governments who have said they will not pay more into the budget and who have also rejected the presidency’s rule-of-law proposal.

One frugal diplomat said the letter “proved once again that the EU’s values are for sale”.

The UK government faces a battle over new Covid restrictions

The Daily Mail went with this as their front page;

The latest Brexit posturing via Politico

A senior EU official said after the call that Brussels was still unclear if the U.K. is willing to budge on key EU red lines, namely the so-called level playing field or governance of any agreement.

“In fact, our main message, you know we see signs that things are moving forward on a couple of things, but the main things still remain unresolved,” the official said. “And that’s why we are saying show your cards on the table. On the most difficult topics, which are essential to getting access to the single market, which they desperately want, we don’t see any signs of progress yet and that is at the heart of the discussion.”

The EU continues to have concerns about a range of issues, in particular that the U.K.'s post-Brexit subsidy regime could undermine the European single market's "level playing field."

Looking ahead, the German trade balance & ECB minutes are the only real highlights, although neither should reveal anything new.

U.S. initial and continuing claims data will be the focal point this afternoon.

Markets have been relatively unmoved by this recently, but unemployment seems to be stabilising at high levels, so it may begin to have some influence..

Expectations range between 800 & 860k for IJC, with the continuing claims expected to land between 11.3M & 11.737M.

ECB's Schnabel, De Guindos & Mersch will speak today, as will SNB chair Jordan, BOC governor Macklem & Fed's Barkin.