The Opening Belle

 European Opening Calls:#FTSE 5947 +0.32%#DAX 12897 +0.20%#CAC 4852 +0.18%#AEX 554 +0.34%#MIB 19217 +0.29%#IBEX 6800 +0.13%#OMX 1838 +0.21%#STOXX 3230 +0.21%#IGOpeningCall— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) September 29, 2020 

 Five minutes before the call, House Democrats unveil their ~ updated ~ coronavirus relief bill, which comes in at about $2.2 trillion and 2,152 pages >> https://t.co/qAWNd1Hr1z https://t.co/4qQdGydYJa— Emily Cochrane (@ESCochrane) September 28, 2020 

 Hoyer on revamped coronavirus bill: I believe this legislation represents a reasonable compromise that meets the needs we identified in the Heroes Act that passed the House in May..Doing nothing must not be an option.— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) September 29, 2020 

The legislation includes money for restaurants, airlines, child care centers and performance venues hit hard by the pandemic as well as funding for the postal service, which Democrats have said is needed before Election Day. The new bill would include another round of direct checks to Americans, at $1,200 per taxpayer and $500 per dependent. And it would renew the $600 in supplemental unemployment aid that expired in July, according to the text.

The package would also extend the Paycheck Protection Program, which expired on Aug. 8, leaving more than $130 billion in funding unused.

Democrats also included $436 billion for state and local governments, as well as a 15% increase in food-stamp benefits, both of which have met resistance from Republicans.

The bill includes $28 billion for a vaccine, including $20 billion for its procurement, $7 billion for its distribution and $1 billion for a public awareness campaign. In addition, $2 billion is set aside to provide more personal protective equipment for all industries significantly affected by the pandemic. It increases federal spending on Medicaid as well.

Also in the package is a measure expanding a tax credit for employee retention that was created in March and has drawn bipartisan support. The program is aimed at keeping workers on payrolls and helping businesses stay afloat by giving employers enough money to cover a percentage of their wages and benefits, plus a credit for fixed expenses like rent.

Mrs. Pelosi will likely have to pass the bill without the support of House Republicans, many of whom are worried about the price of another relief package. Rep. Tom Reed (R., N.Y.), co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus, which released a $1.5 trillion proposal earlier this month, said he was concerned House Democrats might be spending too much by going beyond the most urgent priorities.

“It may be too large of a package that goes beyond that immediate need,” Mr. Reed said on a call with reporters Monday. But he said he was encouraged that the negotiations continued and that Democrats were offering a new proposal. “If we can get to a narrower package, there’s support,” he said.

Though the legislation appears to have little immediate prospect of moving forward in the Senate and becoming law, several of the centrist Democrats pushing for a new bill are facing tough races and want to show that they have tried to secure more aid money for their districts.

Liberal lawmakers had been wary of passing a watered down bill for political purposes that they worried wouldn’t provide enough relief, and it wasn’t immediately clear whether they would embrace the new package. Many House Democrats have said the $3.5 trillion Heroes Act is no longer sufficient because the country’s needs have grown since they passed it.

 Why should the people and taxpayers of America be bailing out poorly run states (like Illinois, as example) and cities, in all cases Democrat run and managed, when most of the other states are not looking for bailout help? I am open to discussing anything, but just asking?— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 27, 2020 

European negotiators have indicated for the first time that they are prepared to start writing a joint legal text of a trade agreement with the UK, before fresh talks begin today.

In a potentially significant move Brussels is understood to have dropped its demand for the two sides to reach a broad agreement on all the outstanding areas of dispute before drafting a final agreement.

In return the UK side is expected to engage in detailed discussions on post-Brexit fishing quotas and the government’s future subsidy policy, two of the biggest remaining sticking points.

Significantly this week’s negotiating round, agreed in advance by Lord Frost and Michel Barnier, has been extended and will include more sessions on the key areas of outstanding difficulty.

There will be 12 hours of negotiation on fishing and 14 hours on so-called level playing field provisions that include subsidy policy. In addition, and for the first time, these will include negotiations on enforcement mechanisms as part of the governance of the agreement. However, government sources urged caution in expecting an imminent breakthrough, warning that “we are still pretty far apart on the difficult things”.

The Sept. 16-28 poll of 12 property analysts showed average home prices would fall 4.5% this year and another 2.8% next. The market is forecast to recover 3.4% in 2022. All of these were slightly milder predictions than in the Reuters poll in June.

“The deterioration in household income will be the biggest driver of weakness, but elevated uncertainty, much lower population growth and weak investor appetite given the slump in the rental market will all weigh on house prices,” said Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ.

“Government support and the deferral of home loan repayments have undoubtedly helped support the market. But with unemployment likely to continue to rise and fiscal stimulus to shrink in Q4, prices are likely to continue to decline.”

“We believe house prices will face downward pressure nationwide, as supportive factors will be outweighed by the impact of the change in net immigration,” wrote Ben McCarthy at Fitch Ratings in a note.

“Immigration had already been slowing prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, but has plunged since the health crisis led to strict controls on international travel.”

 🇦🇺👻🧵One to keep an eye on...

"It's estimated that around one in five customers who opted to defer their home loan repayments are now ghosting their bankers: they are simply refusing to respond to phone calls, texts, letters and emails from the banks."https://t.co/uDsr6GEIks— Microdesiac (@Microdesiac) September 15, 2020 

 Although APRA has given them capital relief on deferred home loans until March next year, the prudential regulator does require banks to form a view as to whether the borrower will eventually be in a position to resume repayments.— Microdesiac (@Microdesiac) September 15, 2020