The Opening Belle

 Risk off moves as cases continue to rise.

European Opening Calls:#FTSE 5818 -0.72%#DAX 12457 -1.50%#CAC 4857 -1.08%#AEX 549 -1.05%#MIB 19000 -1.48%#IBEX 6804 -1.30%#OMX 1807 -0.70%#STOXX 3160 -1.21%#IGOpeningCall— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) October 26, 2020 

It said the COVID-19 pandemic would have an impact on demand “through at least the first half of 2021 pushing out the achievement of key metrics such as (adjusted) cloud revenue, total revenue, and operating profit, by 1 to 2 years”.

Local authorities launched extensive contact tracing and testing after a 17-year-old tested positive for Covid-19 in a routine test.

Another 137 infections, all without symptoms, were discovered on Sunday, each linked to a clothing factory in Shufu district where the teenager and her parents work, local health officials said on Sunday evening.

Authorities cancelled flights, trains and closed some roads while tests were conducted in the city, a historically important hub of Uighur culture and architecture that has been extensively rebuilt for tourists in recent years.

 The charts here show the hospitalizations and deaths in the US Midwest. Hospitalizations have already exceeded the 1st wave peak, and deaths are accelerating fast, and may exceed the 1st wave peak around election day. @COVID19Tracking pic.twitter.com/dVie5m0lMa— Jens Nordvig (@jnordvig) October 26, 2020 

A vaccine considered a frontrunner in the race to protect the global population from Covid-19 has produced a robust immune response in elderly people, the group at highest risk from the disease, according to two people familiar with the finding.

The discovery that the vaccine being developed by the University of Oxford, in collaboration with AstraZeneca, triggers protective antibodies and T-cells in older age groups has encouraged researchers as they seek evidence that it will spare those in later life from serious illness or death from the virus.

Age has emerged as the principal risk factor for a severe bout of Covid-19. However, the immune system weakens with age, raising concerns that the very group which most needs the protection of a vaccine may generate the least effective response to one.

People aware of the results from so-called immunogenicity blood tests carried out on a subset of older participants say the findings echo data released in July which showed the vaccine generated “robust immune responses” in a group of healthy adults aged between 18 and 55.

The earlier findings showed that the vaccine induced two forms of human immune response — generating both antibodies and T-cells — for at least 56 days, according to an analysis published in The Lancet.

Positive immunogenicity tests do not guarantee that the vaccine will ultimately prove safe and effective in older people. That will not be known until full trial data for this age group has been analysed.

However, researchers have been encouraged by the latest development, details of which are shortly to be published in a clinical journal. The University of Oxford declined to comment.

The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance.

That's a big improvement, but 7.6% is still a high risk compared with other diseases, and Horwitz and other researchers caution that COVID-19 remains dangerous.

The death rate "is still higher than many infectious diseases, including the flu," Horwitz says. And those who recover can suffer complications for months or even longer. "It still has the potential to be very harmful in terms of long-term consequences for many people."

Regulators are considering plans to allow banks to start paying dividends again next year as part of a deal to boost lending and support the economy.

The Bank of England and commercial banks are said to be “bartering” an agreement that would allow banks to make shareholder payouts as long as their loss-absorbing capital buffers remain strong and they continue to extend credit to the real economy.

Under one proposal being considered, the regulator would end its dividend ban as long as capital ratios do not drop below an agreed floor and net lending continues to rise.

High street banks already have unofficial capital floors above which they can distribute “surplus capital” to shareholders. Depending on how far the floor is lowered, banks potentially could pay dividends, absorb losses and increase lending.

Regulators want to avoid a repeat of 2008, when banks withdrew credit, causing a deeper recession.

Officials are weighing up whether extending the dividend ban would be more effective at supporting credit growth by shoring up capital; or whether allowing dividends would work better by giving banks the confidence of knowing that they could tap shareholders and rebuild balance sheets after the crisis.

 🇨🇳 The market should be prepared for the yuan to swing both ways and should avoid following the "herd" in chasing new highs after the recent spike, the Economic Information Daily said in a commentary on Monday.— Anthony Barton (@ABartonMacro) October 26, 2020 

 PBOC Fixes Yuan Mid-Point Against The Dollar At 6.6725 (est 6.6698)— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) October 26, 2020