The Opening Belle - Got Bitcoin?

 I might be missing something about Bitcoin so I’d love to be corrected. My problems with Bitcoin being an effective currency are simple... (1/5)— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) November 17, 2020 

A Brexit trade deal could be just days away after the Irish prime minister said "landing zones" for an agreement are now in sight.

France is understood to have accepted that its fishing rights in UK waters will be reduced after the transition period ends on December 31, lowering one of the biggest hurdles in the path of a deal.

The trade agreement could be announced as early as Monday, sources in Brussels suggested – but only if both sides made compromises on issues such as fishing and subsidy law.

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, has called foreign ministers to a meeting on Friday at which he is expected to update them on the progress of the talks, increasing speculation that a deal is close.

But sources in the UK urged caution, saying that while it might be clear by next week whether a deal is achievable, the deal itself was unlikely to be signed by then. Boris Johnson has told his Cabinet that trade talks could still fall apart and it was "far from certain" that an agreement would prove possible.

One source on the British side said: "We don't expect a deal to happen by Monday or Tuesday, but it could be clear by Monday or Tuesday whether we are going to get a deal."

Households across the country are set to be banned from mixing when lockdown ends under Government plans to rescue Christmas, The Telegraph understands.

Boris Johnson has repeatedly promised that the national lockdown will be replaced with a "regional tiered approach" when it ends on December 2.

But Government sources say default restrictions across the country are likely to include a ban on mixing with other households until close to Christmas.

Ministers intend to announce an "end of lockdown package" next week, including a schedule for Britain's vaccination programme and an expansion of mass testing, which they hope will soften the blow of further restrictions.

The plans aim to allow a loosening of restrictions for Christmas, with scientists suggesting a number of households might be allowed to "bubble" together for a short period. Christmas bubbles could last for five days.

The prime minister says that the plan, which is supported by £12 billion of government investment, will create a “greener, more prosperous future”.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday it was not time to shut down emergency programs aimed at battling the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, with cases again surging and the economy left with “a long way to go” to recover.

“I don’t think it is time yet, or very soon,” to shutter the suite of credit programs set up by the Fed last spring with the authorization of the Treasury Department and funding from Congress, Powell said in the clearest indication yet he feels the programs are likely needed beyond Dec. 31, when many are due to expire.

Weak U.S. retail sales in October highlighted the short-term risks, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a separate appearance, raising concern that some families were running out of cash after extensive layoffs from work, while a resurgent virus may have curbed shopping or led to new business closures.

The Fed is committed to “using all of our tools to support the recovery for as long as it takes until the job is well and truly done,” Powell said.

He repeated his call for more fiscal support from Congress to bridge the gap for families until a vaccine is broadly deployed. The current rise in infections and hospitalizations is “very much a concern” because it could scare people from engaging in economic activity and slow the economy, Powell said.

Powell said the recent news that experimental vaccines had been highly effective in trials is “certainly good” in the medium term, but he noted that in the best case they won’t be widely available for months.

“With the virus now spreading at a fast rate, the next few months will be very challenging,” he said.

U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in October and could slow further, restrained by spiraling new COVID-19 infections and declining household income as millions of unemployed Americans lose government financial support.

“It looks like consumer spending is increasingly turning into a headwind for this recovery from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “Fed officials are saying they might have to do more and today’s data may turn that thinking into a reality.”

Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, the smallest gain since the recovery started in May, after increasing 1.6% in September, the Commerce Department said. They account for the goods component of consumer spending, with services such as healthcare and hotel accommodation making up the other portion.

Sales were supported by Amazon.com’s “Prime Day” event, with online receipts surging 3.1%. “Prime Day” is normally in July and some economists said this could have thrown off the model that the government uses to strip seasonal fluctuations from the data, leading to the modest sales gain.

Consumers bought motor vehicles at a much slower pace than in previous months. There were increases in sales of electronics and appliances, as well as building materials and garden equipment. But households cut back spending on sporting goods and hobbies, clothing, furniture, drinking and dining out.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would gain 0.5% in October. Retail sales rose 5.7% on a year-on-year basis in October and are above their February level, with the pandemic shifting demand away from services to goods.

Consumer sentiment ebbed in early November amid worries about finances.

A separate report from the Fed on Tuesday showed manufacturing output increased 1.0% last month after rising 0.1% in September. Production remains about 5% below its pre-pandemic level. Output was boosted by production of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, offsetting decreases in furniture, fabricated metal products, motor vehicles and parts.

 SHARES OF RITE AID DOWN 12.4%, WALGREENS DOWN 8.8%, CVS HEALTH DOWN 7.5% https://t.co/3kxHVSBIG5— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 17, 2020 

Hungary and Poland, both of which have been the subject of the bloc’s existing disciplinary proceedings over the rule of law, regard the new rules as a politically motivated attempt to target them. “I think today ‘rule of law’ is everything and anything that you don’t like about Hungary,” Judit Varga, Hungary’s justice minister, said on a call with foreign journalists on Monday evening.

She added that it was “unfair” to tie funding to the rule of law as each EU state had a different judicial system, and there was no common definition of the rule of law.

Pawel Jablonski, Poland’s deputy foreign minister, said that another problem from Warsaw’s perspective was the “very vague and very wide” nature of the regulation, which would allow sanctions to be triggered not only by breaches of the EU’s values, but by potential risks to them.

“‘Potential risk’ is something that could be triggered by literally anything. We’ve already had suggestions that issues as far from judicial reform as the issues of alleged LGBT discrimination or abortion regulation could trigger these sanctions,” he told the Financial Times.

“So the intentions of the authors of it are clear. After years of discussions and debates, we have no more trust in the integrity of the institutions that are behind it, so we simply can’t agree to it.”

Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday as a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stocks and weaker U.S. retail sales stoked fears over fuel demand, although hopes that OPEC and its allies will delay a planned rise in oil output lent support.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.2 million barrels last week, well above analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 1.7 million barrels.

OPEC+ held a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that made no formal recommendation. The group will hold a full ministerial meeting on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 to discuss policy.

OPEC+ members are leaning towards delaying a previously agreed plan to boost output in January by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2% of global demand, sources told Reuters early this week.

Supporting the case for a tighter supply policy next year, OPEC and its allies have revised oil demand scenarios for 2021 with demand seen weaker than previously anticipated, a confidential document seen by Reuters shows.

 PBOC raised #yuan's fixing by 169 pips to 6.5593 per US dollar on Wed, the strongest level since Jun 2018, vs a fixing of 6.5762 one day earlier.— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) November 18, 2020 

 The offshore #yuan broke through 6.54 per US dollar mark to hit a new high since June 2018. pic.twitter.com/YXBoSUte7C— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) November 18, 2020