The Opening Belle - Suspicious Silver Squeeze

What if David had a few Goliaths in his corner?  

WSB are back in the headlines after switching their focus to the silver market...

The silver short squeeze is ON, with the frenzy pushing silver prices up ~10% in the first hour of London trade.

But who's actually behind it?

 On Twitter, everyone is saying WallStreetBets is going after Silver next.

On WallStreetBets, there are only 3 posts on Silver in about the top 50, and they’re all warning everyone to stay away.

Someone is orchestrating a serious disinformation campaign. pic.twitter.com/49BkX5BIIL— Nathaniel Whittemore (@nlw) January 31, 2021 

The WSJ reports that Citadel handled 29% of GameStop trading volumes Monday through Thursday last week.

“We witnessed an extraordinary level of retail trading last week,” a Citadel Securities spokesperson said. “At many times over the course of the week, the large brokerage firms depended upon our capabilities to handle the deluge of orders.”

This is not 'sticking it to the man'...

Melvin Capital DID lose 53% in January, but it looks like Gabe Plotkin will scrape by...

S3 partners report that short interest in $GME has declined to $30B 'as short sellers trim and liquidate their holdings'...

The volatility in memestocks is likely to remain, although the scales are re-balancing and the 'easy' money has been made.  

There are still big questions over the scale of WSB involvement in this.

The David vs Goliath narrative is compelling, but it's hard to shake the suspicion that they are mere pawns in a bigger game...

 And by investment pros I don't mean "hedge funds" (although yes, that, too). I mean @elonmusk. I mean @Benioff. I mean @chamath. I mean every billionaire who goes on Twitter or CNBC to tell you *how to think* about their latest promote.— Ben Hunt (@EpsilonTheory) January 31, 2021 

Ah yes. Chamath.

He made a lot of noise about Robinhood and their integrity on Twitter and his podcast, and criticized their practice of using payment for order flow to make money...

Chamath is looking to take a Robinhood rival (SoFi) public so his interests aren't exactly neutral...

And there's this too...  

 So Chamath has been making a lot of noise attacking Robinhood and implying there's a conspiracy because it sells retail transaction data (payment for order flow) to Ken Griffin's Citadel.

He wants you use his platform sofi, but it turns out, they literally do the same thing? 1/n pic.twitter.com/63H49PL9MX— tyson brody (@tysonbrody) January 31, 2021 

"He's not the Messiah. He's a very naughty boy!”

Hedge Fund Positioning

Goldman are worried - JP Morgan see an opportunity to BTFD...

“Despite this active deleveraging, hedge fund net and gross exposures on a mark-to-market basis both remain close to the highest levels on record, indicating ongoing risk of positioning-driven sell-offs.” - Goldman Sachs

“Although the short squeeze started with GME, it appears to be spreading to a wider range of stocks. While we expect some more deleveraging, ultimately the scale of the problem appears quite limited.”

“We remain optimistic that it is likely to remain localized... The bottom line is that while the pain could continue in the short term, the risk of a full-fledged contagion remains low.”- Barclays

“While Russell 2000 stocks, where many companies with high short interest are included, saw a sharp decline in their short interest in recent days, at an aggregate level of all U.S. stocks there was little change in short interest"

“In other words, the short squeeze reflects a narrow universe of smaller U.S. stocks rather than a broader market shift.” - JP Morgan

A “short-lived technical tumble.” - Also JP Morgan

China's Growth Slows - Credit Tightens

Latest PMI data was slightly disappointing - growth in services and manufacturing came in below expectations and prior readings.

“The recent localised epidemic has had a certain impact on the production and operation of some enterprises, and the overall expansion of the manufacturing industry has slowed,” said Zhao Qinghe, an official at the statistics bureau.

This is perhaps expected, with new coronavirus restrictions both in China and abroad, it would be hard to maintain the previous growth rate.

However, it comes as China's central bank tries to de-lever the economy, alongside a recent spike in overnight lending rates...

@AnalystDC

 I know nobody cares about fundamentals anymore but FYI China is tightening, the credit impulse there is weakening and now China PMIs missed on the weekend.— brent donnelly (@donnelly_brent) January 31, 2021 

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Keep it simple đź‘Ť pic.twitter.com/2IIfYtkyMq— Nuno (@nunocor_) January 12, 2021 

Eurozone Will Never Hike Rates Again

“I can’t say when a rate increase will come, but what I can say is that a hike in the current environment would have a devastating impact and nobody should want that,” ECB's Schnabel

How long will the 'current environment' last and what can they do to change it?  

“The ECB and the Eurosystem have many excellent monetary economists, so everything is considered at some level,”

“But these measures are not part of our current toolbox. Our active toolbox is a combination of our short term rates, asset purchases, targeted lending and our forward guidance.” - ECB's Lane

It's working wonderfully so far Philip.

 Central banks purchasing sovereign bonds is not just a European phenomenon but a worldwide one, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane tells SĂĽddeutsche Zeitung. He also discusses what motivated him to become a central banker https://t.co/331uVJ02MY pic.twitter.com/q7muJ66rCO— European Central Bank (@ecb) January 31, 2021 

Will Italy follow the U.S' lead and bring a former central banker into government?

Reuters report that Draghi could return to the spotlight by leading an Italian coalition...

 WHATEVER IT TAKES 2.0https://t.co/bXZVaNY5f8— Macrodesiac (@macrodesiac_) January 31, 2021 

UK Recovery Plans

The UK is set to formally apply for trans-Pacific trade bloc membership this week.

The government said joining CPTPP would remove tariffs on food and drink and cars, while helping to boost the technology and services sectors.

“Applying to be the first new country to join the CPTPP demonstrates our ambition to do business on the best terms with our friends and partners all over the world and be an enthusiastic champion of global free trade,” Johnson said.

The plan will be published in the week starting February 22, said government officials, as the prime minister releases a “road map” out of the current Covid-19 lockdown in England and starts to set out proposals to rebuild the economy.

Mr Sunak will use his March 3 Budget to provide more details of his medium term strategy and what he hopes will be the final phase of the emergency government support for the economy that has so far cost ÂŁ280bn.

State support programmes for companies and households are currently due to expire at the end of March or — in the case of the furlough scheme the end of April — and Mr Sunak is expected to use his Budget to extend them until the economy is able to reopen.

“Rishi is expecting this to be the last time he talks about the immediate term support package,” said one of the chancellor’s allies.

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EQUOS is part of Diginex $EQOS. pic.twitter.com/zJsTj84Swj— EQUOS (@EQUOS_io) January 29, 2021