RBA's high bar for hikes

"The economic recovery in Australia is stronger than earlier expected and is forecast to continue. The Bank's central scenario is for GDP to grow by 4¾ per cent over this year and 3½ per cent over 2022".

"Progress in reducing unemployment has been faster than expected, with the unemployment rate declining to 5.5 per cent in April. Job vacancies are at a high level and a further decline in the unemployment rate to around 5 per cent is expected by the end of this year. There are reports of labour shortages in some parts of the economy"

"...the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest"

members agreed that, at the July 2021 meeting, the Board would consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity, the November 2024 bond.

'The Board is prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation.'

South Korea exports logged their sharpest expansion in 32 years in May, marking another robust month of shipments fuelled by stronger consumer demand globally as many economies start to reopen.

Surging chip and car shipments helped power a 45.6% surge in South Korea's exports from a year earlier, government data showed on Tuesday, posting the fastest growth since August 1988 and extending their expansion to a seventh month in a row.

Exports growth, however, slightly missed a consensus of a 48.5% gain in a Reuters poll

Separate data on the nation's factory activity showed activity extended growth into an eight straight month in May. The IHS Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) for May stood at 53.7, compared with 54.6 in April, with a reading above the 50-mark meaning an expansion in activity

"Robust U.S. consumer spending means demand (for Korean products) will remain strong, and suggests May trade data for China and Japan will also be robust," said Park Sung-woo, an economist at DB Financial Investment

Annual house price growth in the UK surged to 10.9% in May of 2021, the highest level since August of 2014, and well above market forecasts of 9.2%.

On a monthly basis, housing prices were up 1.8%, after rising 2.3% in April.

Meanwhile, average house prices surged to a new record of £242,832, up £23,930 over the past twelve months. “Housing market activity is likely to remain fairly buoyant over the next six months as a result of the stamp duty extension and additional support for the labour market included in the Budget, especially given continued low borrowing costs, improving credit availability and with many people still motivated to move as a result of changing housing preferences in the wake of the pandemic.

With the stock of homes on the market constrained, there is scope for annual house price growth to accelerate further in the coming months, especially given the low base for comparison last year”, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said.

 Have a great weekend! $SPX Bears may get a shot in June: Its bearish seasonally in both regular & post-election years

Plan into June: Multi-year resistance at 4320. As long as 4185 holds, looking to rally there, then pullback phase, that I'd be looking to buy. Detail below #ES_F pic.twitter.com/WnUqKs6YYp— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) May 29, 2021 

OPEC+ is not expected to discuss output beyond July and wants to wait and see what happens with Iran, according to sources (Newsquawk)

However, we believe that the market will be able to absorb this additional supply, and so would expect the group to confirm that they will increase output as planned over the next 2 months.

The market will also be looking for any hints from the group on what they may do with supply after July.

Our balance sheet also shows that the group has room to increase output later this year, despite the potential for further Iranian supply. (ING)