💵 Scared of Nuclear? Nah, Time To Build

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We're supposed to believe that nuclear is too scary to build, but how many people do you know that are genuinely living in fear of nuclear power?

Let's be honest, if anyone's truly scared of nuclear power, they're probably not the kind of person you need to listen to anyway.

Just pat them on the head, patronisingly tell them that everything's going to be OK, make your excuses and leave.

Seriously though, nuclear power's just one of those things we don't really need to know/care about.

Most people are clueless about how much of the electricity that literally powers our lives is generated by nuclear sources. It's all insanely complex. Once you start throwing intra-continental inter-connectors into the mix, who really knows where the last few kW came from anyway?

More importantly, who cares? We pay the electric companies to provide electricity. The rest is their problem.

Unfortunately, energy policy has been driven by governments of late. Governments don't really understand the energy sector, and in some cases, are heavily influenced by activist groups.

This toxic mix leaves us all especially vulnerable to shocks caused by things like the Russia/Ukraine gas price spike or the deep freeze that hit Texas in 2021.

Tempting as it is to claim that nuclear fixes this, it's just not that simple.

But the argument for nuclear being involved as a primary source of electricity is unquestionable. Especially if we're looking for lower carbon sources of base power.

This podcast is a fantastic listen on the nuclear topic 👇

It occurred to me while listening that maybe the nuclear 'problem' isn't really about fear these days.

See, everyone's heard about the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, but it's unclear precisely how many people died because of it. Beyond the 'official' death tolls of 31 or 50 (depends who you ask) there have been multiple studies and spins to try and quantify the 'true' number of people affected by the fallout.

Buried at the end of that BBC article is this little nugget 👇

Since Chernobyl, how many disasters have there been? Not many, and very few fatalities. Much like the aviation industry, lessons have been learnt, safety procedures massively upgraded.

Oh, and Chernobyl didn't even shut down for that long. It re-opened the same year and kept going until 2000... From the IL transcript 👇

Yep. The EU got involved 👇

And if you were one of those former Eastern bloc countries still running nuclear plants based on the RBMK design (irrespective of upgrades), you weren't allowed to join the EU unless you promised to decommission them.

Now, we've gone full circle. Czechia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia have formed a nuclear alliance with France to push for greater nuclear investment.

So, if we've moved on from fear of disasters as a decision driver, and it's obvious that nuclear is an excellent low carbon fuel source, and we know that renewables aren't reliable enough without an energy storage revolution... Why isn't nuclear power already the dominant power source?

Time is money

From a political perspective, autocrats have one big advantage. They can implement long-term plans, still be around to see the benefits, point at the success and say "I did that".

Democratically-elected governments don't have that luxury. Short term popularity policies are far easier to pass.

The 'recently announced' Sizewell C nuclear plant has been in the UK pipeline since 2010!

And there are still no guarantees that the remainder of the funding will be available. As with many nuclear projects, the payoff cycle is insanely long and comes with no guarantees. Hinckley Point C construction began in 2018 and isn't expected to start generating electricity until June 2026.

Who wants to invest in such a long-term project?

This is precisely the kind of investment that governments need to involve themselves in, and as a pure capitalist (the proper one, not the crony one) I don't say that lightly. The penny seems to be dropping in the UK & EU 👇

If it's not a question of fear, and governments are coming around to the idea of bridging the financing gap to 'grease the wheels' and incentivise long term investments, are we (finally) on the brink of a nuclear revolution?