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  • 🔔 What would it take for this to be true?

🔔 What would it take for this to be true?

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"What would it take for this to be true?"

Always a good question to ask.

Especially when you're considering outlandish claims, and how things could change in the future.

For example, many energy analysts have looked at the current projections for wind and solar power, and see that there's no realistic way to entirely replace fossil fuels with renewables in the next couple of decades.

Net zero by 2050?

"What would it take for this to be true?" 👇

Given that reality, there is probably no way to meet global targets for CO2 emissions and global temperature increases that does not involve a significant scaling up of electricity generation from nuclear and hydro power.

So when I saw this quote about crypto, I had to dig deeper...

"I think the market cap goes from $2 trillion to $200 trillion in the next 10 years."

"What would it take for this to be true?" 👇

 🤔 The global economy is now ~$88 trillion

For @RaoulGMI to be right it would need to DOUBLE in the next 10 years by growing consistently at 8.5% each year

And the ENTIRE 🌏 economy would run on crypto

Average (mean) global GDP growth over past 25 years is less than 3% 👇 https://t.co/yqz7npwkPS pic.twitter.com/QbVzuLNx3G— Tim (@VolaTim) September 27, 2021 

That was a clumsy comparison. I was too busy thinking about how ridiculous the claim was.

Stock markets aren't the economy and nor is the crypto market.

That said, the value of global equity markets sits at approx. $115 trillion.

Throw in some bonds & real estate (etc.) and total global wealth hit $431 trillion in 2020. Real assets made up 54% of this total at $235 trillion.

According to the latest Credit Suisse annual wealth report, global wealth is projected to rise by 39% over the next five years, reaching $583 trillion by 2025.

Let's make some assumptions.

Let's presume wealth increases by 39% again over the following five years.

That brings us to global wealth of $810 trillion in 10 years.

A large chunk of that is still going to be tied up in real estate/real assets, but let's presume that financialisation trends continue and we pivot away from real assets somewhat, and move into a more digital world.

Let's say that 45% is now real assets ($364.5 trillion)

That leaves $445 trillion of wealth to be distributed between other financial assets.

Just under 50% of this would need to be allocated to crypto for the $200 trillion market cap to be true.

And that's in a VERY optimistic scenario for global growth trends.

Is $200 trillion it possible? Anything is.

Is it probable? Absolutely not.

A LOT of things would need to be true for crypto to have a $200 trillion market cap 10 years from now...

Crypto has all kinds of potential, but let's not get too exponential about it.

utrust

Rolls Royce: Going Nuclear!!! We did this writeup on Rolls Royce last year, and it turned out pretty well 👇

According to The Telegraph, the recent energy crisis has focused a few minds...

The Government is considering ploughing more cash into mini nuclear reactors in an attempt to prevent further energy crises as Britain transitions to net-zero carbon emissions.

Rolls-Royce could be in line for extra support for its small modular reactors as the current energy price crunch heightens the political focus on bolstering the security of the nation’s long-term electricity supply.

Sources close to the decision noted that “Rolls-Royce is ahead of the game in terms of tech,” and its status as a British company will also make it attractive to ministers.

And they've also been selected to 'provide the powerplant for the B-52 Stratofortress under the Commercial Engine Replacement Program (CERP), further extending a long history of powering the United States Air Force.

Excellent news, with potentially more to come as travel picks up and those engine hours increase...

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