narrative exhaustion

Let’s talk about Trump tariffs. 

Did you feel it?

That instinctive “oh not this shit again” alarm just went off in your head.

Which is literally how markets feel about Trump & the latest tariff headlines.

It’s like being addicted to coffee.

The first time that headline (caffeine) hits, it’s out of this world.

This is incredible, amazing, out of this world, unprecedented!

You feel like you could take over the UK on your lunchbreak!

Wait, that might just be me.

But you quickly get used to that feeling.

Now you need two cups to get the buzz.

Then a while later, you need three.

We build up a tolerance to the caffeine until it really does nothing.

And markets are no different.

Which is why these Trump tariff headlines aren’t the volatility events they once were.

As we get used to these new ‘stimulants’, the volatility smooths out over time.

In other words, we get used to a new normal relatively quickly.

It’s also why the Nvidia & Oracle mega OpenAI deals didn’t have any lasting positive market impact.

And why Micron’s superb earnings report didn’t push the share price higher.

Over time, attention ebbs & shifts elsewhere.

Narrative exhaustion is an incredibly powerful tool.

Remember when Tesla was FINISHED as a company back in April?

The share price not falling after horrific earnings was a big tell.

Popular wisdom said Google was going to be killed by AI.

Now they’re killing it with AI, and up 75% from the Liberation Day lows.

When narratives are no longer impacting the price, it’s time to pay attention, and look at the other side.