TFI Friday

The positive risk sentiment has continued overnight. These trends are not for turning. At 06.45BSTASX (-0.1%) Nikkei (+0.24%)KOSPI (+1.94%)

DXY 92.60EUR 1.1878JPY 105.58GBP 1.3247European markets are set to open on the front foot.

 European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6024 +0.18%#DAX 12899 +0.54%#CAC 4938 +0.54%#AEX 554 +0.25%#MIB 19848 +0.41%#IBEX 7030 +0.53%#OMX 1760 +0.49%#STOXX 3289 +0.46%#IGOpeningCallā€” IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) August 21, 2020 

Positive vaccine news overnight should maintain the positive risk sentiment.

  • Pfizer, BioNTech have deal to supply 100 million doses to U.S.

  • Some analysts expect a vaccine to be approved by November

The companies said the vaccine was well tolerated with mild to moderate fever in fewer than 20% of the participants. The companies are continuing to analyze data from the Phase 1 trials in the U.S. and Germany, they said in a statement.

Uninspiring data from Japan.

The spectre of a return to deflation will keep the Bank of Japan (BOJ) under pressure to continue massive monetary stimulus and maintain ultra-low interest rates to support government fiscal spending aimed at battling the health crisis.

Japanā€™s core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, stood flat in July from a year earlier, data by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed on Friday.

ā€œTaken together, core CPI is likely to stay largely flat towards next year,ā€ said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities.

ā€œJapan is in a deflationary situation. As we shift towards ā€˜new normalā€™ following the coronavirus, the BOJā€™s 2% inflation target is increasingly losing reality.ā€

The PMI readings didn't lift spirits either;

The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managersā€™ Index (PMI) edged up to a seasonally adjusted 46.6 in August from a final 45.2 in the previous month, recording its slowest pace of decline since February.

...below the 50.0 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for a 16th month as output and new orders continued to contract.

ā€œDemand continued to be adversely affected by subdued trade flows and social distancing measures.ā€

The PMI survey also pointed to further weakness in service-sector activity, which saw new and outstanding business and business expectations all fall to three month lows.

The Australian PMI's took a slight dip, but sentiment remained broadly positive.

Commenting on the Commonwealth Bank Flash PMI data, CBA Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird said, ā€œThe decline in business activity over August is hardly surprising given the lockdown measures in Victoria.  With the August composite flash PMI only modestly in contractionary territory it is highly likely that outside of Victoria private output continued to expand over the monthā€.

Mr Aird also noted, ā€œThe fall in employment is the inevitable consequence of shutting down large parts of the Victorian economy.  Encouragingly, firms collectively retain an optimistic view on the outlook despite the setback in Victoria. Ongoing fiscal support for households and businesses remains critical to ensuring that optimism is not misplacedā€.

Looking ahead, Preliminary PMI's will keep rolling in through the day. Unless the data is well outside expectations, none of these should have much impact. I'll be watching UK retail sales at 7AM BST. Cable has had a strong push overnight. A decent reading could see it above Wednesday's high, taking a look at 1.33s.