- Fink 🧠
- Posts
- 🔔 Today is Monday so this will be the BEST thing you've ever read
🔔 Today is Monday so this will be the BEST thing you've ever read
EQONEX: Institutional-grade crypto exchange, built to support and enhance crypto adoption.
Utrust: Accept payments in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major digital currencies
In case you're not 'in' on the joke, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal jumped on Twitter over the weekend to offer his thoughts on inflation.
Sadly, Raoul is facing extradition from the Cayman Islands to be put on trial for a serious crime against humanity.
He has popularised the pricing of equities in central bank balance sheet terms...
And he's been at it for MONTHS.
🤮
Your honour, I'd like to present Exhibit #569 👇👇👇
Don't give me cheap "correlation doesn't equal causation" gibes. It gets old and the burden of proof is on you.
As is the burden of proof of" QE doesn't not equal money printing!". I DON'T CARE. Evidence suggests that fiat is being devalued, regardless of the mechanism.— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) July 24, 2021
If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
- Albert Einstein (maybe)
Before anyone starts accusing me of micro-aggressions towards their favourite guru, I actually think he's right...
Not about pricing things in central bank balance sheets (which is completely f***ing ridiculous), but about the burden of proof.
It absolutely is our responsibility to fact check.
Fortunately, Macro Alf was on the market huddle podcast this week to explain how QE actually works.
(Spoiler: it doesn't flow directly to equities from central bank balance sheets)
There IS a relationship between QE and asset prices, but it's not the one you think...
Whatever you read about markets, get curious and stay curious. Permanent curiosity is the best way to figure things out 👇
Sponsored: Easily receive crypto payments with Utrust 👇👇👇
utrust.com/business
Sticking with the topic of gurus...
Remember this guy?
He gets a load of coverage because of his Big Short trade...
But can he repeat his prior success?
Well, the odds aren't in his favour...
A result I think about often: People (whether founders or pundits) who correctly predicts a big hit or extreme event that no one else did are usually THE WORST at predictions. Rather then being insightful, they tend to be bad data analysts who got lucky! https://t.co/5kvoZ0up3L pic.twitter.com/kUfyzn8bw6— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) July 22, 2021
I'd argue the 'bad data' doesn't apply to Burry's big short.
Presuming the film is true to life, he did the work, crunched the numbers and understood the odds.
What he didn't factor in was just how long it would take for the penny to drop so that he could get paid...
Fortunately, the payoff was so outsized it didn't matter.
This applies equally to 'celebrity' market calls as it does to venture capitalists 👇
Forecasting the future is hard, but if anyone makes enough forecasts with no skin in the game, it's an asymmetric bet.
Impossible to lose money, and people naturally focus on the calls that turn out to be correct...
Always relevant 👇
Sponsored: Eqonex completed their airdrop. Don't miss out on the next one 👇👇
Traders who hold #EQO on EQONEX will enjoy the following perks:
✔️ Reduced trading fees
✔️ Daily #EQO staking rewards
✔️ Enhanced trading capacity with the upcoming EQO-D airdrop
The more #EQO you have, the bigger your perks.https://t.co/m9XPyZKPzA https://t.co/h3AThxZ0nc— EQONEX (@eqonex) July 20, 2021
Remember Brexit?
Many have complained (with valid reason) that the vision for Post-Brexit Britain hasn't been clearly laid out.
The UK government recently published their innovation strategy (full report here) and we can start to build a picture of their intentions...
They have also clarified that the doors are always open for the best and brightest, and anyone who has graduated from a top global university will be free to move to the UK even without a job offer under the new 'High Potential Individual Visa'.
There will also be a new scale-up visa, which will allow fast-growing business (20% average over 3 years) to hire skilled workers without going through the existing sponsorship process.
Looks like the Innovator Visa, which is currently broken, will also be reformed to allow foreign entrepreneurs with credible investors to move to the UK.
Sounds good!
Various studies have shown a strong correlation between skilled immigration and innovation outcomes.
Maybe the UK will finally get some tech companies into the FTSE...
