Twenty Twenty MORE

We’ve seen enough.

We love talking to you every day, but it’s time for the annual Christmas break.

Daily e-mails will be paused from today until early 2024.

Before we go, let’s quickly sum up how things stand.

The trends are entrenched. The narrative is consistent.

“Soft landing is all but guaranteed”

Yes, that makes fertile ground for a shock, but where from?

Fed will likely push back on current market pricing tonight, but retain optionality by saying the dots are not forecasts, as they always do.

Very unlikely that they endorse those cuts. Very hard for them to surprise the market.

If you’re looking for shocks, you really have to dig around in your imagination…

Slim pickings. Retail sales would have to be seriously bad tomorrow to spook anyone.

The Bank of Japan meets on Tuesday, but it’s unlikely they’ll formally announce anything.

They’ll probably continue preparing the market for rate hikes that may come if they can get those wages and consumption up.

The BoE & ECB are as non-eventy as central bank meetings can be. Sure they might lean one way or the other, but the data’s really in the driving seat

Heading into the end of the year, there’s a load of other data points that are unlikely to resolve the economic situation one way or another.

So, it’s the perfect time to kick back, enjoy times with friends, family and do all that festive stuff.

The market will have some surprises in store for 2024. And so will we. So please, any religion, superstition, luck you can send our way this week, please do!