UK Doom-lection

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Fink Money
July 03, 2024 ā€¢ Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

ELECTION FEVER.

We are so not used to elections in the UK /s

Hugely unsure what the whole furore around this election is or even why the Tories are bothering campaigning because they certainly are NOT getting into power.

The pound is unperturbed going into the vote as wellā€¦

But this is largely because the euro looks to be in an even worse state with whatā€™s going on in the EUā€¦

This is how the polls are looking as we go into tomorrowā€¦

But remember, this doesnā€™t translate into seats because, well, we have a messed up voting system.

ā€˜All votes should be worth the same, right? With First Past the Post votes are not equal.

In the last election it took 26,000 votes for the SNP to win a seat compared with over 800,000 for the Green Party.

Over 600,000 votes for the Brexit Party won absolutely nothing.

Labour had to gain over 50,000 votes to elect each MP, while the Conservatives needed only 38,000.

It isnā€™t just who you vote for that decides what your vote is worth under First Past the Post ā€“ itā€™s also where you live. If you live in a ā€˜safe seatā€™, where the same party wins every election, your vote is worth very little and parties have every reason to ignore you.

Many seats havenā€™t changed hands in 100 years and most have no prospect of changing at any given general election. As a result, elections under FPTP are decided by a few thousand swing voters in a small number of marginal constituencies. If just 533 people had voted differently in 2017, it would have given us a majority government instead of a hung parliament.

As a result, parties and politicians focus their efforts, resources, and even policies on this small number of voters.

Campaign spending and activist footfall is higher in marginal seats than in safe seats. Governments have even been found to allocate more public spending to the marginal seats they need to win at the next election.ā€™

I have left out the Greens since they are just not a serious party.

What can we take from this?

Well, not much.

Iā€™ve been suggesting the Tories and Labour are effectively the same with this, extremely clever, meme.

And you can prove it economically too.

People keep talking about ā€˜did you live under the debt of the Labour governmentā€™ without remembering a few thingsā€¦

Even if you consider the Bank of England owned debt spawned post GFC AND post Covid, the debt load would still be higher as a percentage of GDP under the Tories than Labourā€¦

How then does that suggest the Tories have been economically conservative?

Many keep suggesting that Labour would bankrupt the country, but by which metric?

I still maintain the sole cause of UK austerity was ACTUALLY due to the Stability and Growth Pact from the European Commission, which I have written extensively on previously!

Many wonder why the US did well post GFC while Europe (and more specifically, EU nations) descended into dire growth prospectsā€¦

Well that one policy is the start of the 14 years of depression weā€™ve had so farā€¦

The solution: the next time we have low interest rates, absolutely wrap EVERYTHING we can spend into a zero coupon 100 year bond and build, invest and produce.

Itā€™s the only way we can get out of this absolute quagmire.

Oh, and of course start a Georgist economy whereby inflated land values donā€™t cause the insane depressions we have.

What chart caught my eye?

Hereā€™s what growth is signalling on some high frequency indicators, the Purchasing Managersā€™ Indexā€¦

European nations are the biggest laggards.

Fact.

Use this chart when youā€™re arguing about whoā€™s doing crap and who isnā€™t!

Elephant in the roomā€¦

Russia is doing well šŸ‘ļø

Could be linked to this Ed Conway report!

What do you need to know?

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