Should the UK spend big?

Before we get onto the spending debate, the main news ahead of the open is U.S retail sales coming in ultra hot...

 #UnitedStates Retail Sales month-on-month at 5.3 https://t.co/weoPiAQNO8 pic.twitter.com/fZhyj3iCUq— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) February 17, 2021 

A reading of +5.3% vs expectations of +1.2%... 🔥

Waiting for the STIMULUS FUELS U.S. SPENDING BOOM headlines

The spending was broad with every major category showing increases...

Electronics and appliances saw the biggest increase, up 14.7% for the month, while furniture and home furnishing stores were up 12% and online spending at nonstore retailers jumped 11%. Even food and drinking places, which suffered the worst during the pandemic, saw a 6.9% rise.

- CNBC

It's just one data point and those hoping for big bold stimulus packages may hope this isn't the start of a trend...

Today's Opening Belle 🔔

 👂 Listen to today's Opening Belle 🔔 on Spotify here:https://t.co/COOIf5vjEW

🚀 Bitcoin to $51k

💷 Should the UK spend big?

❗ Bad assumptions: listen to David get wound up

💭 Why is 'manifesting' nonsense? pic.twitter.com/T28SyDeW8V— David Belle (@davidbelle_) February 17, 2021 

Bitcoin 🚀

Bitcoin hit $51k today, and the rally has led to some odd comparisons with the Fed's balance sheet and M2 money supply (No, they're not related in ANY way)...

David and I discussed what's driving the move, and touched on the reasons for the rally to continue from here.

We didn't touch on the options pricing though - that's covered by Equos' Justin d'Anethan here

 After hitting a new all time high of $50,000, options pricing shows the priced-in probability of #BTC hitting $100,000 by the end of the year is currently at 14%. What do you think 2021's ATH will be?

EQUOS is part of Diginex $EQOS.https://t.co/kJpp6FNaSM— EQUOS (@EQUOS_io) February 17, 2021 

Equos is a digital asset exchange built to institutional standards & available to everyone.

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With a focus on innovation, transparency and trust, EQUOS is a part of Diginex, the first Nasdaq-listed company with a cryptocurrency exchange.

Sunak urged to copy Biden and ‘act big’ with £190bn stimulus 💷💸

Britain needs to “act big” with a £190bn fiscal stimulus matching the ambition of Joe Biden in order to restart the economy and avoid long-term stagnation, a UK think-tank has warned.

So says the Institute for Public Policy Research... (via the FT)

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has so far committed the government to additional spending of £40bn, equivalent to around 2 per cent of gross domestic product in the next fiscal year relative to pre-pandemic plans, IPPR said.

This is dwarfed by the new US administration’s proposals for a $1.9tn stimulus package worth almost 9 per cent of GDP over the coming year.

IPPR argues that the UK needs to launch a stimulus package on a similar scale to the US — worth £190bn, or 8.6 per cent of GDP in 2021-22 — to avoid a vicious cycle of business bankruptcies, lay-offs and depressed demand.

It calculates this as the amount of extra spending needed to lift the UK economy back towards its full potential, and argues that it should be directed towards pandemic-related spending, an extension of job and income support schemes and help for businesses and public investment.

“The risk of doing too little far outweighs the risk of doing too much. Joe Biden has understood this. Rishi Sunak should follow his lead,” said Carsten Jung, senior economist at IPPR.

Some of that spending will need to go towards the skills mismatch

Industrial Strategy Council

'Manifesting' is 'Bollocks'

Here's the thread that inspired our conversation

 I've spent a lot of time recently on Clubhouse listening to supposedly 8-figure entrepreneurs talk about 'mindset' & 'manifestation'.... and I have some thoughts

*clears throat*— Angelica Malin (@jellymalin) February 16, 2021 

Ultimately, it's impossible to manifest anything into existence, and the 'self help' industry perpetuates the myths that line their pockets...

Utrust - taking crypto payments mainstream

How does it work?

 Besides significantly lower fees, the core @Utrust advantages are:

- Zero chargebacks losses ✔️

- Zero locked funds for flagged card payments ✔️

- True borderless coverage ✔️

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Keep it simple 👍 pic.twitter.com/2IIfYtkyMq— Nuno (@nunocor_) January 12, 2021 

They're also writing a series on the history of money which is well worth a read!