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Us debt is going to end the world
Before we get into this weekâs note, just a quick shout out to Tom Mitchell over at the NGMI Newsletter.
Love the name.
Love the content more.
If you need to get to grips with the latest narratives, crypto buzz and gems kicking about, make sure to subscribe to the NGMI NewsletterâŚ
Tom has been a journo at Cointelegraph for a long while now and is one of the best in the biz at spotting crypto opportunities (way better than me, anyway!).
Bit of a weird headline is kicking around right nowâŚ
From Bloomberg, nonetheless.
The US debt outlook is fragile. Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations. Results for 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path
â Bloomberg (@business)
10:08 PM ⢠Apr 1, 2024
Wow.
I am shocked that this has been found to be the case.
I mean, there has literally never been a time ever when the US debt was not sustainable, right? (sarcasm)
If you do a Google search for ânational debt too highâ and exclude any articles from after the pandemic hit, you can see that people have been worried about the national deb for literal decadesâŚ
This is not me suggesting thereâs no worries here â itâs just me saying that perhaps we need to think of things a little differently.
For instance, would it have been a good idea not to have increased the debt over the pandemic and just let people fend for themselves?
Or why has there been little consideration given to who owns the debt (the Fed has increased ownership MASSIVELY, so context of post pandemic debt creation vs pre-pandemic is very different).
But also no consideration given to the fact that perhaps looking at what the debt tends to get sucked into is important (hint: property, more specifically land values).
The lesson: try not to take these headlines at face value.
Economists are some of the most wrong people on the planet.
ICYMI
Oil hits 5 month highs after our article on how to take advantage of the commodity move was clearly read by everyone in the industry (sarcasm, again).
We also spoke last week on why you NEED to own this British supermarket and how to find stocks that are ready to explode.
If youâre not yet Premium, sign up now to read this and every other article weâve ever written (and will write).
What you need to know this week
The UK simply hates investing in itself.
Is there any wonder we have such poor productivity when we just donât really fancy upgrading anything?
Less money into property investing, more into our businesses I say!
And this is proved by the below Tweet from Simon French.
Misallocation of capital is stark. UK resi = 4x value of UK equities (ÂŁ9tn). In US this ration is 1 to 1 at $49tn
â Simon French (@Frencheconomics)
7:22 AM ⢠Mar 25, 2024
Itâs very simple. We love putting money into a highly unproductive âasset classâ here.
In the US, they clearly prefer to invest in businesses đ¤ˇââď¸
The most important chart of the week
Doc Marten seems like they are going to go private.
We at Fink ABHOR Doc Martens.
Ugliest shoes ever, and the sharesâ performance since IPO reflects this.
"Maintaining Dr. Martens as an independent publicly traded company is likely no longer in the best interests of shareholders," Mario Cibelli, Marathon Partners' managing member, wrote to the company's board last month.
Good.
Hopefully a ban on the shoes occurs soon after.