Week Ahead - Witty Headline Remains Elusive

 This is going to drag on quite a while. Let me cover the basics:— CulturalHusbandry (@APhilosophae) November 7, 2020 

 What a headline. https://t.co/idOJ5dVHpo— Macrodesiac (@macrodesiac_) November 4, 2020 

 DEUTSCHE BANK SAYS CHANGES VIEW ON US DOLLAR, DOES NOT SEE GOOD RISK REWARD IN SHORTING DOLLAR ANYMORE— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 4, 2020 

 Deutsche Bank 1/7: We've been arguing for a broadly weaker #USD across both #G10 & #EMFX over last 2months. With US election outcome extremely uncertain, we are changing view & turning neutral. We no longer see a compelling narrative of dollar weakness into year-end for 3 reasons— Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 (@Francesc_Forex) November 6, 2020 

The Swiss National Bank has not reached the limit of its ability to buy foreign currency assets to weaken the Swiss franc despite its massive balance sheet, governing board member Andrea Maechler said on Thursday.

“We have always said we are willing to intervene strongly in the FX market...there is always a trade off and we need to be clear the benefits (outweigh) the costs,” she told an event held remotely because of COVID-19 restrictions.

“We have not reached the limit yet,” she added. “If the world goes in a wrong direction and we have very negative scenarios, we have a lot of (room) left.”

While a negative rate might lead to a helpful depreciation of the Australian dollar, it could impair the supply of credit to the economy and lead some people to save more, rather than spend more.

Given this assessment, the Board continues to view a negative policy rate in Australia as extraordinarily unlikely.

In recent weeks, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has cut the cost of shorting the currency and tweaked how it sets its trading range to remove barriers to declines. Chinese state banks have been selling yuan late at night.

On Oct. 10, China scrapped a requirement for banks to hold reserves against yuan forward contracts, effectively removing a guard against depreciation.

Then it asked banks to remove another dampener on depreciation by suspending their “counter-cyclical factor,” a tool routinely used to massage the value of the yuan’s daily mid-point to prevent it from falling too far.

Traders, meanwhile, told Reuters that state banks were selling yuan and using currency swaps to make borrowing it more expensive.

“The PBOC has been successful in dissuading short-term traders from adding positions as they have made it clear they are not happy with large one-way moves,” said Kalra.

What do you think of the recent rise in the euro, Phil?  

Analysts said that while Agbal is a close Erdogan ally, he is seen as a capable manager who could take a more orthodox approach to policy.

An official from Erdogan’s ruling AK Party said Agbal faced a “difficult test” at his new post, but that he was a “strong name” who could help alleviate some of the pressure on the lira.

“We will see a stronger central bank governor,” the official said, adding Agbal “will act smart”.

He is not seen as someone who would accept political direction, the person added. “It is a difficult post, but steps to stop the rapid rise in the exchange rate must be taken.”

Agbal will face his first significant test on Nov. 19 when the bank’s monetary policy committee meets.

“Agbal is a realist. He knows the market dynamics. His feet are on the ground. He must have gotten a promise for some room. He is not a person who is amateur enough to sit at this position otherwise,” the senior official said.

Exports from China jumped 11.4 percent year-on-year to USD 237.18 billion in October 2020, following a 9.9 percent gain a month earlier and beating market consensus of 9.3 percent growth.

This marked the fifth straight month of increase in outbound shipments and the fastest in 19 months, as global demand recovered further from the coronavirus hit.

Robust shipments of medical supplies and electronic products have supported sales over the past several months while reduced manufacturing capacity in some countries also benefited China.

By contrast, China's exports of unwrought aluminum, and aluminum products fell 2% year-on-year to 418,893 tonnes.

Imports to China rose by 4.7 percent year-on-year to USD 178.74 billion in October 2020, after a 13.2 percent surge a month earlier and less than market estimates of a 9.5 percent increase.

This was the second straight month of growth in inbound shipments, as domestic demand recovery from the COVID-19 shocks continued.

Purchases of unwrought copper and copper products jumped 43.4 percent yoy to 618,108 tonnes. Also, imports of iron ore grew 14.9% to 106.74 million tonnes, with arrivals from both Brazil and South Africa increasing. In addition, purchases of soybean soared 41% to 8.69 million, due to rising cargoes from Brazil and the US. In contrast, imports of crude oil fell 6.7% to 42.56 million tonnes.

China's trade surplus surged to USD 58.44 billion in October 2020 from USD 42.3 billion in the same month the previous year, and far above market expectations of USD 46 billion.

Exports jumped by 11.4 percent while imports rose at a softer 4.7 percent.

(Reuters) - U.S. coronavirus infections surged by at least 129,606 on Friday, according to a Reuters tally, the third consecutive daily rise of more than 100,000 cases as a third wave of COVID-19 sweeps the United States.

Texas, which accounts for over 10% of U.S. cases, reported about 9,000 infections and is on the verge of becoming the first state to exceed a cumulative 1 million COVID-19 cases.

Governor Greg Abbott said the U.S. Department of Defense has deployed three U.S. Air Force Medical Specialty Teams to El Paso.

COVID-19 deaths are trending higher but more slowly than infections.

The United States is averaging 880 deaths a day, up about 10% in a week.

Ten states have reported record daily death increases this month: Arkansas, Idaho, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

'Significant differences remain'

Following a call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday, the PM said progress had been made but there were still issues around the "level playing field" and fishing.

Both parties agreed negotiating teams would resume talks in London on Monday.

They also agreed to remain "in close contact" over the coming days.

A statement from Downing Street on Saturday said:

"Prime Minister Boris Johnson today spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for a stock take on the progress in the negotiations between the UK and the EU.

"The prime minister set out that, while some progress had been made in recent discussions, significant differences remain in a number of areas, including the so-called level playing field and fish.

"The prime minister and president agreed that their negotiating teams would continue talks in London next week, beginning on Monday, in order to redouble efforts to reach a deal.

"They agreed to remain in personal contact about the negotiations," the statement said.

Echoing Mr Johnson, Ms von der Leyen acknowledged "some progress had been made, but large differences remain". "Our teams will continue working hard next week," she wrote on Twitter.